The Inevitable Crash of the Century

“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.”
– Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury – Sept. 1929

Fellow Readers,

For the first time ever I am way more focused on the traditional stock markets than on Crypto and so should everyone, for several reasons, but foremost:
This time is different.

Ever since i bothered to get down the rabbit hole of how our world really works I knew that we are living in the Biggest Bubble of All Times that will inevitably burst in due time. The question never really was whether it bursts, but rather when the crash will occur and what implications such scenario will have on our daily lives. Although latter is somewhat speculative, the former is actually not far away.

For the first time ever humans artifically created the “Everything-Bubble” based on a toxic economic system that generates more debt than money to repay, and which demands constant parabolic growth on a global scale. It does not take a genius to figure out that this is not a sustainable way of living and that it will come crumbling down if certain catalysts trigger fear and panic among traditional investors spreading globally.

If you think about it in an objective way, we humans are like cancer for the planet.
I think Agent Smith was pretty clear about it in the movie Matrix, he actually nailed it:

Agent Smith: “I’d like to share a revelation I had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague, and we are the cure.”

Is it not like that? When we compare our way of living to that of every other species on the planet, we must inevitably come to the conclusion that we are one amongst millions of species that are not living in tune with Nature. We completely lost the connection to what we really are, and the pain and suffering in the world is the natural result of that fallacy. We exploited the planet and its natural, precious resources for centuries, especially more in the recent decades, to a degree that we now face our own destruction in the next years if we do not manage to make a 180 degree turn, which is however only a limited option as those in control have no interest in making a turn whatsoever and will resist such change with all tools at their disposal.

When we maintain a system that demands constant growth, while resources needed to fuel that growth are limited, we pretty much have set ourselves checkmate. You cannot sequeeze more juice out out of a lemon than what it naturally contains, and we will soon figure that out. And in a way it is a justified reckoning. All these years we all looked away, being ignorant about what is happening, indirectly supporting this system by contributing our time and energy into that, or simply ignoring the warning signs that are here for decades already, very obvious in plain sight, all of this will hit us in the face rather sooner than later. Yet we stand there unprepared and mostly unknowing. If you as a baby boomer thought you will make it to your death bed before that actually happens, you may be in for a surprise.

We have allowed this to happen – even if unknowingly – thus we will eventually suffer from the consequences, even if we have not established this toxic system ourselves.

We passively agreed to the system, but we actively suffer from the consequences eventually. I am talking about everyone, no matter where they live and what they do, what they think and what they are capable of, to be affected significantly in their daily lives which is so dependent on the state and the system we fuel by our compliance when it finally comes crumbling down.

This is a warning.

There is one specific characteristic in man that has been completely mastered, and that is Ignorance. We are able to live for decades pretending nothing is wrong, although every day things get worse. We however decide to look away because we don’t feel an immediate effect on our own personal lives. We are so consumed by technology, social media, News, Netflix and Crypto and everyday worries that we forget everything else completely. Most of us know that the system we run today cannot be sustained in the future, but rarely anyone is able or willing to look beyond that. I have tried several times to make aware of these circumstances, however ignorance and trust in the old system is high among daily life relationships.

It seems that nobody is willing to talk about a potential collapse of the society as we know it, even if the risks are very evident for such scenario. If you are afraid of talking about it in the first place, what do you think how you will deal with the actual event!?

In a state where humanity is mostly sleeping, absolutely unconscious and blind to what is happening at a larger scale, we will be beyond helpless as a species when things get turbulent. The only thing to avoid such a paralysis is to actually prepare by the means of information and actual physical preparation. No one becomes a prepper because they overly enjoy it, but because it is necessary and the logical consequence of the information they have accumulated. Being prepared by any means is not something that is weird, it is acting responsibly, while everybody else continues to be busy looking away.

Sure we can pretend everything will go on just as in the past, because its comfortable. But as comfortable it is, it is just as unlikely. This is not meant as an offence, most of us have been spawned into this system and not actively developed it. In fact, nobody really understands the system which is so important to our daily lives.

Yet looking away is not the solution, truth is. We already KNOW that those in control have no interest in change, even if it ultimatively means their own destruction. It is up to us people to accept the responsibility to make such a change. But this is no news. It feels like mankind has been going in circles for centuries, never learning from their mistakes whatsoever, while we declare ourselves as a developed civilization.
One step forward, two steps back.

Although I could go on forever diving deeper into the wrongdoings of our species, it is not the time and place, and certainly not the aim of this article. The actual objective of this piece is to make aware of the Global Everything Bubble and to indicate that the point of no return (The Crash) is by no means very far away. The mood of the market has already changed and seems to be getting worse day by day. Generally I would say that this indicates a possibility of accumulation, however this is clearly not the case in such altitude, while real economic data are going down. Since Fiat is not backed by Gold anymore, it is actually backed by economic data. When these economic data keep tumbling down, but stocks are still rising parabolically, that’s a warning sign that should be taken seriously. The market has been propelled by margin, debt and inflation for decades and are artificially supported by the Money-Creators themselves, buying up their own stuff. When they will stop doing so, which is already indicated and widely discussed, there will be no buyers left: Markets will collide. This is not the only weapon of choice, they have another one: raising interest rate. At this stage, after borrowing insane sums of money on an unseen scale, the whole world is running on debt which cannot be repayed. Almost every institution, bank and business have active loans that they are already struggling to repay. When the FED further increases interest rates, those business will collapse as they have to pay back even more than previously. And what happens when large institutions and banks collapse? They drag all others down with it, thus due to the interconnectivity of global commerce basically everything. This will in turn trigger more liquidations while nobody is there to buy the falling knife. Oh no, I believe at this stage of madness we will not be able to hinder such a meltdown by any means. The banks tried it in 2009, and they managed to support falling prices with inflationary injections. I am talking about firing up the printing press and support the economy with that fresh money to avoid a total collapse. It worked, but since they have printed parabolic amounts of new fiat in recent years follwing that 09 crash, this option is no longer really available. Besides, we have not learned anything from the 08/09 crisis and things look significantly worse today than a decade ago. Once panic kicks in, there will be no buyers whatsoever, and prices will melt down globally. We do not know where it will end, and whether it will recover, but there is multiple scenarios that i deem as relatively realistic in this regard, although i will cover only the following in this article, others in due time.

1) Global Markets will melt down

In the case of a severe collapse that does not quickly recover, the system will quickly become unfunctional for a long long time. If you think it further, banks and businesses collapsing means not getting fiat at your bank, nor buying stuff you need. No proper transportation, what about supply of water and electricity? Uncertain. What is sure is that if 90% of businesses are forced out of the economy because they cannot pay back the loans they took, no one is going to work as nobody can afford workers anymore. When they feel the impact on their personal life due to shortage in water, food or electricty, they will be at their families trying to provide instead of going to work when they are not getting paid. Just look at what happened in Venezuela. If you think that is the other side of the world and has nothing to do with us, think again. We have witnessed the same stuff in Weimar and many other occasions. Collapsing fiat is nothing out of the ordinary, in fact it is rather normal. Every single fiat currency that has been used has finally collapsed to its real value, which is the value of the paper it is printed on. To say it in Voltaire’s words:

voltaire.jpg

Yet while we have 100% proof that every single existing fiat currency has gone to zero, we are not ready to accept that those we maintain in our world today will share the same fate eventually. Are you prepared?

If you have no idea what is happening in an economic meltdown, I encourage you to study the Venezuela case. If you are in crypto, chances are you waste a lot of time scanning charts that don’t move and scrolling through Twitter. Spend your time more wisely, acquire information that are crucial for what is inevitably coming. Trusting on Crypto is nice, but a gamble in a world so unstable politically and economically. If the electricity grid goes offline as a consequence of everything colliding, there is no crypto no more. Albeit unpleasant, I encourage you to think about it and take appropiate measures so you have a solid foundation of knowledge for the new Age following that turbulent time. Because the old system needs to go so we have the opportunity to create a better one.

Well, lets get to work and have a look at the crashes of 1929, 1987 and 1990 in both Dow Jones and the Nikkei.

29

Surging prices, parabolic top, retest of major trendline & failure to hold above, break of key support, collapse.

1987

Again surging prices, parabolic top, retest of major trendline & failure to hold above, break of key support, then collapse.

nikkei 1990

Same thing, different disguise.

One thing that stands out is that the pattern is largely the same. It has something to do with the parabolic price advance prior and the key trendline broken, at which point the market is so heavy that it cannot sustain further growth. The collapse is a natural consequence of the prior price action, and by no means unusual in markets. We have used the following chart in crypto extensively, and there is no fundamental difference here:

phase

Zerohedge managed to put it in a nutshell fairly well:

“The similarities are astonishing: prices rise along the trendline, then the advance accelerates and peaks, the trendline survives an initial test and a rebound commences. A second test of the trendline fails, and after the indexes break through, a water-fall decline begins.”

After looking at these charts, lets have a look at nowadays S&P 500 to see if there are similarities:

dow today.png

Ouch. We have already broken the longterm trendline, while markets struggle to maintain valuation above it. We therefore must conclude from previous examples that right now the markets are too heavy to continuing it’s rise and will likely collapse soonish. When taking the bubble chart and trying to pinpoint where traditional markets are right now, there must be at least the realization that we are in a very fragile state when it comes to global markets. The difference this time however is that this will result in a major global crisis, way stronger than in previous crashes outlined above, due to the nature of an ever-increasing globalized, interconnected economy fueled by margin and debt.

phase.png

dow today.png

The key level to watch is the 2580 mark, the last major low in the S&P 500 chart. If that one fails, we get a Lower Low after a Lower High, which means downtrend, and we will see a blood bath in proportions we might have not witnessed before. Historically it is safe to say that those turbulent times generate many tense & emotional events and attempts of the government to gain more control over the people.

In this regard it should be noted that China has managed to trade Oil for Yuan. Given the fact that the U.S. invaded every single country attempting to bypass the PetroDollar in this regard, and the fact that the U.S. needs war in order for their economy to grow, we might see turbulent moves at the time the markets collide. The fact that both Russia and China are on the way of establishing new ways of trade and collaboration, which is clearly not in the interest of the U.S. is leading to a very tense political situation. Be very aware of what is happening. Just like the state likes to introduce tricky laws in the past when everybody is distracted watching The Soccer World Cup, or similar, they will enforce even heftier laws when everybody is distracted by the world wide crash of traditional markets, likely having to do with more surveillance and limiting rights of citizens further.

One thing that indicates that we have some pretty turbulent and violent times ahead is the $VIX, which measures the volatility in the S&P 500. We can see that it spiked when the S&P had its first strong leg down which triggered the trendline in early February, which implies that volatility increased significantly when the panic first kicked in. From the chart below, which is pretty bullish, we must conclude that the next legs down in the S&P will propel the volatility even further. When looking at the VIX chart, EMAs are aligning upwards, Higher Lows are already established. All it needs is a strong push though that resistance of previous Highs to trigger a volatility avalanche.

vix.png

We live in dangerous times, and many are waking up to the fact about now. There is much at stake when it comes to the future of mankind, and we must learn to live up the responsibility to shape this world. There must be better solutions than those we currently entertain.

However not all things are that bad, although the emphasis of this particular article suggests so. Having a look at the Crypto Markets, things look somewhat brighter, although we are not completely through yet.

total mktcap ex.png

As outlined in the chart above, we currently are at support of a major trendline connecting two previous highs. After a volume peak at top we had declining volume on the move down, which will likely be ended with a volume spike up, as soon as sellers are exhausted, which might be here or somewhat lower in buy range of the chart above. The latter would mean we are potentially in for another weaker leg down before things get better, although it must not be. Another chart that is very interesting is the Turtle BTC Buy Market Percentage Chart, which shows the upside reversal is already under construction.

buy marketSource: https://www.turtlebc.com/tools/buy_percentage?period=3years

The $BTC 3D chart tells us we are in undecided territory, however clear trigger points will decide the further fate of BTC in the neartime future.

btc

$7240 was the last low, which was also a bull reversal bar at EMA 200 and a potential second long signal. Any trigger below that candle would lead to those bulls getting stopped out, which might trigger another stop level below $6000, however somewhat more unlikely as both EMA 100 and 200 act as support below.

$9177 was the last local high. If triggered, we would be looking at three Higher Lows and a Higher High which would lead buyers back into the market for a retest attempt of the $11788 double top structure, which in turn may lead to fomo by those who sold their stack in the hope of accumulating way cheaper. As all EMAs are in right order as of now, any strong move up will likely lead to continuation of the rally that peaked in December. From that higher-timeframe perspective we would indeed be at the first bear trap here before the actual global rally takes place, which we are all waiting for more or less patiently.

Either way, things will get interesting in the coming days and weeks. While I maintain my bullish perspective on the crypto markets, the traditional market crisis will certainly lead to a hefty increase in volume and volatility, so brace yourselves and expect the unexpected.

Stay safe out there,

CY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

The Turn of the Tide

So I have returned from my spiritual quest. Time is short, yet many things are left undone.
Instructions have been given to me which I am decoding to my best knowledge at this time,
to pass it on to the fellows that recognize the truth inherent in this human experience.

This post is about the change that is about to occur on a global scale in the very foreseeable future. Many do not yet know what is coming, and it is supposed to be like that. Yet it does not change the fact that we are in a turbulent phase of existence which will fully unfold in months and years to come.

“A great storm is coming, but the tide has turned.”
J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
“It is not our part to master all the tides of the world, but to do what is in us for the succour of those years wherein we are set, uprooting the evil in the fields that we know, so that those who live after may have clean earth to till. What weather they shall have is not ours to rule.”
J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
This is the account of the information I have gathered in years of research, meditation and journeys into the invisible world of consciousness. I do not claim to know all there is, which would be a foolish venture, nor can I predict the future, this is not about that. This is purely about the accumulated indications which imply that a storm is coming, and we need to brace ourselves, because due to the nature of things, the storm is unavoidable. The question is not whether or not the storm is arriving in our lifetime, the only question that matters is in which direction will we use the new energy to unfold. I have no interest in sharing the source of knowledge at this stage, but there will be more chapters in the future. The transition and calibration of the information that has been passed on to me and which I trust to a fundamental degree is somewhat tough to manage, but i give my best in order to provide information that might be crucial in the coming years, independent from whether you are ready, open or willing to accept these developments.

I will now share some views about Life and the way I understand it, which I feel is urgent at this point in time to share, no matter the consequences and implications. This is my subjective understanding of life accumulated through decades of experience. If you find yourself in this, chances are we are on the right track. If you do not find yourself in these words, you probably have work to do. Either that, or my accounting is wrong, which I doubt as confirmations have been received on infinite occasions. I will speak openly now.

The World that we know

We have all been spawned into a world which is best described as duality. Everything we see, feel and witness is an expression of that duality, which is basically a pendulum or spectrum of energy. Both darkness and light are possible, and so it is with everything in life. There is the bad, and the good, the bright and the dark, the warm and the cold. Duality, however is not our natural habitat.
We come from a different place, but at this stage are reincarnated into this plane of existence to fulfil our task that has been given to us in mutual agreement between ourselves and the source.

If this view disturbs you, brace yourselves.

No matter if you believe you are coming from the source or not, we cannot deny we live in a world that is not like it appears to be. We all felt from the very beginning that there is something weird about this existence and life as it should be. It is necessary at this stage to share information in order to path a way into the depth of existence. I have never in such detail described my understanding of what is going on, but I feel the necessity and can no longer withdraw myself from the responsiblity that I have agreed upon. Take it as you will, know that I am taking a risk here. There are entities in this plane that have a fundamental interest in you not knowing these things, as it would shatter the illusion they have created to trap us into the modern slavery which we call life today. The Matrix is real, and it is partially your responsibility to recognize it, and draw the appropiate conclusions from the implications taken from such scenario. You are only partially responsible, because you have agreed to come here without knowing where you come from. The accumulated experiences of your soul have been stored in a place that is not accessible without spiritual advancement, which is only possible for a fraction of beings on Earth at this time, but can be achieved by everyone.

Life is about so much more than we know. The example that comes to my mind is the analogy of the iceberg. It is estimated that about 90% of an iceberg is underwater. Which means that when you stand on such iceberg, you may access that which is visible like the surface, but in contrast have a hard time witnessing the depths of the iceberg. It is in the hidden shade underwater and one has to actually dive down to fully grasp the iceberg in it’s wholeness.
ice1
This is directly in correlation with the human ability to use only about 10% of the brain’s actual capability, which in turn means that there is about 90% of brain capability hidden to be unlocked. It is in the hidden shade, stored deep in the subconsciousness which you only have partial access to, until you finally decide to further advance into the depths of your being. As with the iceberg, it is necessary to dive into the depths to understand what it is all about. We all have a mission here and it is our assignment to find out what this mission is to be able to live this life fully.

You can resist it, but eventually you will always come back to the question that seems to be fundamental in understanding this experience: What is life about?

Yet, although the question has been around since the very beginning, no universal accepted answer has been found and agreed upon. It seems crucial that we need to first understand our very own subjective answer to this question. If we do not have such an answer to that question at this time, while the clock of life is continously ticking along, it might be time to explore this thought a little more. Because if we do not have such answer to that question, how will we be ever able to live our life in a way that is fulfilled and whole, in alignment with everything there is? Where is happiness coming from, when we do not understand the basic fundamentals of life itself? How can we build a house the ground if we do not understand how the ground is working, on which laws it operates and how to construct a complex structure on top of it without jeopardizing the final outcome?

We have work to do. Yet many are doubting and generally resisting against the idea of a higher, more purposefull existence. That there is actually way more than we know about. We, as a collective, have not yet grasped or barely scratched the surface of what is possible, because we are still operating from a state of denial when it comes to these things. There is abundance to explore and i encourage you to do exactly that: to explore that which you do not yet know. For that it is necessary to open your mind to concepts that you previously have not considered and evaluate it subjectively with your own experiences accumulated in your lifetime. We can decide to stay blind to these things, but the truth will always prevail.

So what is the truth? First of all, “The Truth” is subjective, based on our past experiences and very individual perspective on life. It also implies that the Truth is something that you need to figure out yourself, because only you are capable of doing so. There is a way to merge these individual Truths into a collective Truth in the future, but this is not yet the time to talk about these things.

We are here, because we agreed upon it prior to this existence.

Chances are that you have come here voluntarily by an universal agreement for a specific mission that only you can accomplish. This is what is meant when it is being said that everyone is special. You, with all your faults and blessings, have special abilities that only you possess in your very individual and complex way of being – and it is necessary to both embrace and understand these special abilities of yours, and the reason you came here in the first place.

Shuttering? Stay with me.

This ability of yours that you either unlock or deny, will fundamentally change this world in your lifetime to extraordinary degrees.

That which we currently see and understand about life, the way it is going and where it is heading will be completely altered in the years to come. The system will not survive the shift, and it is about us to shape the future of this planet and to unify our individual energies into the collective grid.
No matter what you believe you are here for, if you dismiss these concepts, you likely suffer to a large degree in your life right now. Because it is an inner current that is driving you to these things of depth which you cannot deny infinitely. The Force is real and it is up to us to embrace it. The only way to embrace it is to invest into it energetically. We will come to that soon.

The critical mass is about to be triggered

There is much talk about the critical mass that needs to be triggered.
Obviously due to us being actively involed in this Cryptosphere we mostly think about it in terms of massive adoption, but actually it is an analogy for the whole shift that is taking place right now. Surely, if we trigger the critical mass, which is said to be about 3% of the population it will manifest in Crypto as shooting prices and global FOMO, but this is only a subdiary of what is actually taking place:

The shift in energy due to astromical changes in the Grid of the Earth as predicated by many civilizations, predominantly the Mayans in the most accurate calendar ever created, is having huge implications on all beings on this planet at this time. Due to the global media there is a suspicious sphere about these Higher Timeframe happenings. But we already know that the media does not work in our interest at all, quite the opposite, so I encourage you to go your own way of exploring these things that clearly reside in the unconventional spheres when viewed from a social perspective. Talking openly about spirituality is a no-go in our such modern civilization.
The problem is not that there are entities that don’t want you to know these things, but that most sheeples of society dimiss the spiritual idea completely, not based on own experiences, but because of ignorance, and people tend to be afraid to speak about these things to avoid getting ridiculed, which needs to stop.

We are operating from a Low Timeframe

Life is a blink in existence. Compared to the movements of planets, and cycles in nature which outspans our definition of time by far, we must assume that there are both Lower and Higher Timeframes from which we are largely seperated. Yet they exist, and our non-understanding of these other Timeframes is giving us a hard time living in this plane.

From my point of understanding we are in the transition. Most people believe the Mayans predicted the end of the world in 2012. Because nothing was happening the idea that the Mayans knew anything at all was widely dismissed, which is hilariously ludicrous. What the Mayans predicted was not the end of the world, but the end of the world as we know it. The end of a thousands year cycle and the beginning of a new age, with the transitioning beginning after 2012. There are various records of what cycles exactly end, as it seems that multiple cycles happen to end at the same point in time, coming from various Higher Timeframes, making the impact even more significant and powerful.

It is not important that you believe it right now, it is only important that you hear about it.
Just listen.

IF this is true, it has major implications on our lives. Like in a chart, you would like to see support in Higher Timeframes before entering a trade in Lower Timeframes, as it gives you an appropiate Risk/Reward Ratio, which means that the Investment you make will likely generate a positive result while minimizing the risk of failure. If we manage to accept that there are Higher Timeframes to this life, we inevitably must come to the conclusion that we are at the dawn of times, where huge changes are about to occur, while we are yet unprepared for the vastness of the experiences to come.

This is no problem as such, as Higher Timeframes have a different definition of time, which can be best described as patience from our perspective. The Shift must not take place in a single day, it is rather a transition through many years and decades, but the time is now, and we are all here to witness, and are asked to adapt.

We have a decision to make.

All of us, no matter how different we perceive to be, have agreed upon a universal responsibility that we cannot remember fully while being here. It is time to tap into that and explore everything that has been hidden from us. In the context of the Major Change happening right now at this time, it makes sense that with every individual having the guts and capabilities (we all have that and are able) breaking that barrier to the hidden, will path the way for fellows to follow. It is showing the way by example, which we all are responsible for if we realize it or not. We have a tremendous actual responsibility, yet we as a collective have mastered ignorance and excel in hiding everything under a huge pile of nonsense while maintaining specifically crafted ways of thinking that do not allow to access the outer boundaries of this existence. You have a decision to make, just as me and everyone else being here at this time.

You can resist the change that is inevitably occuring, and you will reap which you have sought.
You can support the change that is coming to us, and you will reap which you have sought.

The outcome seems to be the same, but there is a distinctive difference in that equation.
Your intent in combination with your focus shape the world as you perceive it, which is a subjective reality. If the trend reversal on that Higher Spiritual Timeframe is successful we will enter an age in which the subjective realities merge together to form a universal reality which we all share and contribute to. Which is obviously only possible if the critical mass is triggered to begin with, and mastered when the whole collective is ready to embrace this new way of experience.
Yet nothing is hidden in the universe, and there is a perfect accounting system inherent in this experience. Nothing you do will be forgotten, and you will always reap which you have sought, in this life or the next. Thus the only thing that matters in this equation is your intent and your capability to love. Wait Love? Such a controversial topic, so widely avoided all over the world.
We somehow feel disconnected and guilty about not feeling the love that we should naturally feel, and much evil is the result of this erring.

Yet Love is where all of this unfolds, and the capability to tap into that energy is the gateway to the hidden. So is stillness. So is sound.

If you decide to support the change, it is time for a change. Indeed it is time to take the time and tackle the things that are left undone. We must understand that the energies of this planet are changing at a rapid pace and we need to keep up energetically to be in tune with that. If we are able to tune in, we will experience life as effortless. All will be provided, in direct correlation with the trust you are able to have into the source that creates all things. I firmly believe that we are at the brink of time and every each and every one of us has a significant and powerful impact to make. For the first time in eons humanity has the chance to evolve energetically and spiritually which will alter this whole experience in extraordinary ways. The shift is so vast that words are no help here. With any One breaking the barrier, it makes it easier for those who intend the same. We are literally helping each other evolve by evolving ourselves. This is so powerful.

I firmly believe that many are Sleepers, waiting for something to occur. Especially in Crypto I believe we have many of the brightest and also spiritual beings around.
We all are waiting for something to happen, something extraordinarily shocking from our traditional perspective of life. Something that shutters our minds. And many are aware and can confirm that they are ready for it, although nobody can really express what exactly it will be like. Others are sleeping deeply, and they will have a rather unpleasant and shocking awakening, but it is not to be avoided. Eventually all will be good.

I want you to tap into that, because it is fundamentally important from a universal perspective.
There is nothing specific you must do to signal your support in that matter, all that you must do is to decide. The source will respond, if you make sure to interpret the signs and maintain your trust no matter the circumstances. We all have to learn here and can only make it easier for others to access what we have accumulated in our experiences, but everyone has to experience it themselves.

If you do not believe in these kinds of things, stay sleepy. All will be revealed in due time, and it is your conscious decision to make and your fruits to harvest. Well it kinda is a trap, because if you read until here, while I ask you for a conscious decision whether to support or not support this change, you have no way of deciding unconsciously here. You might ignore the question, but your answer is already revealed in yourself.

We must tap into that idea, and stop seeing ourselves so seperated from everyone else and finally release the boundaries of conventional thinking. Mind forms matter, and Thoughts are a way of communication and manifestation. We are all in this together, we just pretend to be alone. But eventually we must come to the conclusion that there is so much we do not know, and exploring that is the only way to achieve fulfillment in life – for all of us.

Love and Passion are great ways to tap into that. Observation is the main tool to understand. Patience is an energetic investment in that which you need is being provided. The Force is the energetic magnetic field surrounding us and our planet that you can tap into to communicate and manifest. Meditation is the means to generate energy that then can be used to transform, manifest or further understanding. Trust is the support that you build in order to receive. You must support the Force so it can provide what you desire from your heart. This is learning in an environment which is largely invisible to perception, as you are mostly operating based on feeling and intuition, which offer no proof in the logical world we live in. It is something that you can explore without anyone knowing it, in stillness while the learning curve gets parabolic after several weeks of investing energy into that spiritual side of life. There is nothing to lose for anybody here, but much to gain no matter if it is something you have or have not previously considered. If there is only one piece of advice I would like to remember for my next lifetime, it is this: Meditate. From there all will be revealed, if you keep being dedicated and patient although nothing happens first. Have trust. See it as an experiment to explore something you did not know about, like a child being naturally curious.
By tapping into that, which is the source of your being, which is connected with the source of everything, a whole new world will be shown to you that you have previously not engaged in, not even scratched on the surface, and it is so worth it. The way I understand it is that there is a major resistance that needs to be broken initially, which has largely to do with the Ego in control of our mind and trying to prevent us from tapping into that. Go beyond it and understanding is yours.

This is a both an introductionary post for what comes in the future and a measurement of how discussed information is being processed in order to see where we currently are in the course if things. I encourage discussions and input of any kind. If you have something to say about what has been talked about here, feel free to do so.

May the Force be with you,

CY

Ähnliches Foto

 

The Dark Night Before Dawn

You see, I get it. We had this amazing time in December when everything went parabolic and the media got all crazy about it. It was a time of celebration with your fellow crypto folks, plans emerged what you are gonna do with the profits of yours. It looked like we will go up infinitly. Then the dip.

Since peak we are now down about 70%. Many got triggered by the Media and ended up buying high (take that as a lesson by the way, the Media does not work in your interest, but solely in their own), other’s were fortunate enough to buy earlier, so technically are not holding a losing position. However no matter where you are coming from, we have something that unites us all: We are in the game. And while the world economy gets a first glimpse of what the eventual meltdown will look like, we are still here. Yes, it is a temporary drawdown, but the single most important thing that many seem to oversee today is that we have a foot in the door, while the majority of the world’s population have both no clue and no plan. This is because we as humans are so distracted that we barely see what is really going on. The bubble is here, but it is not Crypto, it is the traditional fiat markets and the debt-based financial system that we currently entertain, which cannot be sustained for much longer. Please feel free to read my articles as I went more elaborately into that topic in the past. The energy is shifting, and humanity is slowly waking up. The thing with truth is, as soon as you understand it, there is no way of going back. You cannot unsee what you have seen. We therefore must assume that the number of awake humans will increase in the future until the critical mass is triggered, which will lead to a long-overdue global revolution. I am not solely talking finance here, I am talking about a spiritual revolution that is coming at us at a rapid pace. While that energy is increasing, every individual has choices. You can either go with the flow, or keep up the ignorance currently entertained by the majority of population. That is a topic that will be covered more in the coming months as this becomes more evidence in the real world. For now I wanna talk about the dip, and put out some thoughts about it from my very subjective perspective. Only take what you need, leave the rest.

You see, money is just a fraction of the experience we call life, and it is not the most important one either. I previously made some general statements about having wealth does not make you a happy and fulfilled person, and it is true.

I feel I can comfortably talk about that, because I have experienced both. Not too many years ago I walked through the grocery store with a calculator and could only afford food for my cat, but not myself. I know pretty well what poverty feels like, but on the bright side of things it made me go all-in in Crypto. It was simply my rescue boat.

Now due to me having experienced both extremes, I can tell that money is only a problem until you have more than you need to cover your expenses. Everything above is a bonus, but it will not significantly alter your life experience. It is nice to be free of debts and monetary problems, but life is about so much more than that. And it is only when you have more than enough when you will realize that.

We need corrections for a healthy trend, and I consider this statement absolutely true. Without any pullbacks, this crypto thing would be unstable and uncertain. Only the consolidations will bring the support that we need for a stable trend up, and you will be grateful for these dips in the future. However I feel the emotional and mental struggles in realizing that a dip is actually a positive thing. After all, we are losing money in this period. But it is only temporary.

We are in such a fantastic and exciting time of humanity, and we have the chance to witness and even participate in the biggest transfer of wealth that ever happened on this planet. It is still in early development, but inevitable, at least in my perception of things.
I am pretty confident in five years from here you will not even recall this particular dip. That is the peculiar things with dips, it is only intense when you are right in it, but quickly forgotten after. Thus the most important thing is not that the dip is here, but that you learn something from it. It may be an adjustment of your strategy, or gaining emotional strength that you have gained by holding through the storm. I have experienced many 90% dips, and I am still holding around. This is either because I am utterly retarded, or because I understand that the dips is not what matters. What really matters is what price you bought at, and how much you are willing to take until you give up.

I get it, this is a dark night for many, especially those who entered in the last months hoping for getting rich quick. This is usually not how this is going. In order to reap the benefits of your actions, you need to invest. I am not solely talking about financial investment, but constant investment of time, energy and willpower to make this happen, so you realize the reward is just in comparison the investment you made. The willpower needed to endure the dark nights will give you the power to handle the wealth later on. It is only then when you feel you have earned it, that you will attract that which you sought. Getting rich quickly cannot work in the same manner as putting extensive energy into something only to see it bloom in some years from here. Getting rich quickly will likely make you lose your wealth quickly as well. The pain and negative emotions on the path of reaching financial independence is what makes it worth it, and will enable you to keep the actual wealth you have earned in the future. It makes you mentally and emotionally strong, and this is not a bad thing. The emotions that you observe in dips like that is necessary for your future growth. Welcome it. Embrace it. Observing and conquering your emotions will make you a stronger being one step at a time.

No matter if you are holding a massive losing position, or just suffer from the emotional difficulties of holding in a dip: You are going to be alright, you get me? Everything is temporary, so is this. The only important thing to learn here is that you are able to survive this, both financially and emotionally. You are way stronger than you think.
I know that because I have experienced so many dark nights in my life that I stopped counting. Eventually everything is always going to be alright, know that and operate from the knowledge that all things change.

The only constant in this equation is you. You are the ship in the ocean of life, and yourself is the only thing you can steer. You are the captain of your ship. You cannot control how the weather will be, or how rough the sea will treat you. The only thing you are capable of controlling is that ship of yours that only you know how to steer. When the winds are tough and the sky is dark, you can only take in your sail and patiently wait for the storm to be over. However if you stubbornly set your sails, the storm will take you down without mercy. Life is as such. When rough times are here, it is too late to change it. The only thing you can ensure is that you have the strength and willpower to wait until the weather clears up, and the trust and knowing that there will be brighter days eventually.

Let’s get to some practical things you can do while the dip lasts:

o If you trusted your money with some fundamentally strong projects, have faith.
o Observe your emotions, feel how they want to trigger you to make bad decisions at the worst possible time. Just observe, but don’t act on it, so you will learn that emotions can be controlled. Otherwise the market will teach you sooner or later.
o Have a look at the BTC chart of the past. Analyze, see differences and similarities, understand how this market is moving.
o It may be a good time to reconsider your portfolio, or your portfolio-strategy. The flight to quality will inevitably come.
o If you cannot handle the emotions but want to go through with your strategy, turn off your computer. It is as simple as that and probably the most valuable recommendation I can give. Countless times I have closed my laptop because I knew it would trigger negative emotions looking at my portfolio, which in turn might trigger bad, unconscious decisions. Go out for a walk in nature. Read a book. Have some fun.
o Use the time at your disposal to research. Research projects, coins, fundamentals, the state of the world. Learn something while you wait for the market to turn.
o Meditate. It will calm your mind and decreases the power of emotions on your decisions. I consider Meditation to be the most valuable investment in life.

And remember, everything will be alright. In some weeks from here you will be looking back and barely remember the pain you went through. But what you have gained will stick with you for the rest of your life.

All the best and much strength, I know you can do it. Have faith,
CY

The Truth about Ripple

Gents, Ladies, Newcomers & Oldskoolers..

For a long time I kept calm and observed what is going on in the markets while letting the process naturally unfold. Due to recent events however we are now at a point in time where it is more important than ever to speak up. When ignorance gets to a level that is worrysome, it is time to act. The truth is the truth and it is our individual and collective responsibility to get the word out if necessary. I therefore will tell my subjective truth about the whole Ripple thing in this post. This is for everyone invested in XRP as well as everyone who is torn between being silent or speaking up.

You see, i get it. Most of you are making a shitload of money right now riding Ripple. It is wonderful to have money. But did you ever wonder about at what expense you are making this profit? Everything in life is in balance, you gotta give in order to receive. There are always two sides of a coin. If you are making a profit on XRP right now, you are paying a price. It is just that most of you are yet unaware what price that is.

In the beginning of the year I advertised Ripple from a technical charting perspective as very profitable. However during the year I researched a lot, and more importantly, the list of red flags added up and grew steadily so that I eventually reversed my earlier position in this regard.

In this article, I wanna walk you through my list of red flags. I expect not that you agree with me (bias is strong anyway these days), but i expect you to at least be open-minded and re-revaluate the critical components of the Ripple system that will be outlined below. If you disagree after reading the article, im fine with that. You can do with that information what you must. My responsibility is to speak up when misinformation rises parabolically, and it is getting time..

When Bitcoin spawned into this world it attracted all kinds of individuals. The majority of them were unsatisfied with the status quo of the economic system currently entertaining our everyday lives, and were looking for new, more efficient solutions that actually gives the power back to the people by eliminating third party interventions like banks. Early innovaters of Bitcoin were here for the global revolution that blockchain could potentially bring to the world and its citizens. It was all about immutability, public ledgers, anonymity, bypassing third parties and banks, in order to re-distribute the global wealth and regain financial freedom and independence for all of humanity.
If everyone becomes his or her own bank without any intermediary parties having control/power over your monetary assets, this is real freedom, at least in a monetary sense. This however is in stark contrast to the traditional system we currently entertain, and have already entertained for decades, while things get worse and worse.

I am talking about the system the world is based upon; the biggest scam in human history: Debt-based Fiat currency. Since Nixon took the Dollar off the gold standard, it is worth noting that the value of the Dollar and other Fiat currency is the exact value of the paper it is printed on. It is not backed by anything, but trust that it actually has any value whatsoever, which works for as long as everybody mutually agrees on that. It can be printed at will, and the decision to do so will be made behind closed doors. In the meanwhile, we have inflation which reduces the value of the nonetheless worthless fiat over time. The money you have at your bank today is getting more worthless every single day. “But I receive positive interest on my bank account!” some say. Sure you do, if you get a 1% interest on your savings, but lose 3% due to inflation, who is the winner now? Hint: It is not you.

The ignorance of how our economic system works (on which by the way our whole global economy is based upon) to me is beyond rational understanding. If you do not understand how our economic root model works, how can you build your life on top of that? Not understanding this underlying model is like constructing a huge house on ground which you have not previously investigated, just to eventually figure out that you have built it on toxic quicksand. It will be too late by then.

It is YOUR responsibility to understand the economic system the world entertains today. This is mostly targeted at Millenials. I know most baby boomers and elders have accepted the status quo as reality, which is not yet fully the case in younger generations. Especially when it comes to the very first generation that grew up with the Internet, which means (at least theoretically) having access to almost all information accumulated by human kind.

No, we did not learn much about the current system in school, we are not supposed to understand it properly in the first place. If everybody would suddenly realize the reality of the bogus our system is running upon, there would be blood on the streets, two minutes from here. But of course that is not in the interest of those controlling that system. If you wanna continue to sleep, don’t read further, just go ahead.

I will ebalorate about the state of the world in future post, for now I will focus on XRP and the red flags it brings with it.

XRP is not a cryptocurrency

“Released in 2012, Ripple is a real-time gross settlement system, currency exchange and remittance network by Ripple Labs. It is also called the Ripple Transaction Protocol and is built upon a distributed open source Internet protocol, consensus ledger and uses the native “cryptocurrency” XRP. Ripple’s focus is to create a system than enables “secure, instantly and nearly free global financial transactions of any size with no chargebacks”.
At its core, Ripple is based around a shared, public ledger which uses a consensus process that allows for payments, exchanges and remittance in a distributed process.”

– Wikipedia’s definition

So far so good. But this is not the end of the story.

Actually XRP is an electronic token, created and backed by a single company:
Ripple Labs Inc. – a global money transaction business.

It should be noted that there is a distinct difference between digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP tokens. While Bitcoin is an actual cryptocurrency and store of value, XRP tokens are essentially backed by traditional (Fiat) currencies, as if they’re dollars or yet or another form. XRP is not intended to be money in the first place, it is a medium of exchange to transact value. It can be seen as a giftcard or token that can be sent in seconds & redeemed for fiat money.

When Ripple Labs Inc started XRP in 2012 they “created” 100 billion tokens out of thin air. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, who were also the founders of Ripple Labs. The creators gave the remaining 80% of the total to Ripple Labs which intended to redistribute remaining tokens to ecosystem supporters like banks.

However Ripple Labs today owns the vast majority of XRP (over 60% of the supply). It is their sole decision to cash in on the value or completely devaluate the market by flooding it with cheap XRP.

ridethelightning

Another important issue to think about: It is easy to manipulate the market if one group  controls 60% of the supply. It opens the gate for widespread manipulation. We do not know what those individuals do with this high valuation, but regardless, you are at the whim of a powerful 3rd party with uncertain goals.

If 100% premine aka “creation out of thin air” with 60% of the total supply being in possession of the creators is not enough for you to shake, lets go on…

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and 90% of all cryptocurrency blockchains, Ripple is a relatively closed blockchain. Through some effort, users can go download a wallet and transfer Ripple to it, but you have to create trust lines with other organizations in order to get access. In this way, you can’t just send money to whomever you want, they have to accept you as trustworthy before allowing transactions. In other words, they control the servers that allow transactions. Isn’t that what centralization is all about?

When Bitcoin was originally created, it was designed to be a store of value. When you created a transaction, you were sending a store of value to another account (for payment for goods and services). Miners created nodes on the network to process transactions and were compensated with this cryptocurrency, either through fees or mining rewards.

This is not how Ripple works. Ripple has no mining or miners whatsoever. Instead, transactions are powered through a “centralized” blockchain to make it more reliable and fast. XRP was mined all at once by the parent company, with a majority of the cryptocurrency held by them. This is basically the pure definition of centralization:

Centralization:

“The concentration of control of an activity or organization under a single authority”
“The centralization of all financial power in the hands of its leaders”

In contrast, a defining feature of a cryptocurrency, and arguably its most endearing allure, is its organic nature; it is not issued by any central authority, rendering it theoretically immune to government interference or manipulation.

More than anything, Ripple resembles a fintech platform which has simply combined the best elements of fiat money and blockchain cryptocurrency.

It therefore should be considered Digital Fiat, not a cryptocurrency. 


The Price You Pay

As previously stated, you are likely paying a price for the profits you make through XRP.
Lets examine:

You invest your hard-earned Fiat or BTC into a token for which Ripple Labs never paid a dime to create. It cost them literally nothing to create the tokens people buy today at $4 per piece. 100% of the tokens were created out of thin air, while the majority of the supply is still in control of Ripple itself. The network is privatized, meaning that not everybody can participate in the systems, as trustworthy nodes are “selected”, which is the basic definition of centralization. If we think that further, in actuality you are buying worthless air, and make the creators incredible rich at the same time, while hoping someone will pay you more for the air of yours than you paid for in the first place.

stupid

novo.png

I’m sure Chris Larsen is pretty happy about your Ripple enthusiasm…

Don’t fall for the hype. Do not focus on making money solely, there is more at the stake than just monetary gains. And it saddens me deeply to see that most have no clue about what is going on in the backgrounds. In my subjective analysis and understanding, Ripple is a trap, and if you currently hold XRP, you are right in it.

Think it through. Blockchain is a completely new tech, and no one is fully capable of realizing its impact on humanity in 50-100 years from here. There is guesses, but there is no certainty. The reality is, we can use this technology either for our collective liberation, or we will end up in a global state of surveillance, still controlled by a tiny group of wealthy and powerful individuals. WE choose what we will become, collectively.
Hereby our money is our vote. By choosing to invest in certain blockchain projects, we also financially support those ideas that will eventually manifest and shape the New World. If you want to support an improved version of Fiat Scam, you can do so, but i ask you to do it at least consciously so that you can understand the impact of your decision, even if it is 50 years from here. We all plant the seed for our future right here right now, individually and collectively. In due time, the seed will either flower or degenerate.
It is up to us to decide.

I want you to understand that this article is not driven by self-interest. I do not hold any XRP, nor do I desire to get a position. Nothing in this article is meant offensive in any way. I do not claim to be 100% right about everything when it comes to Ripple, but I gathered have enough indications and red flags to not be invested nor recommend it.

This article is purely driven out of the feeling of being responsible for what happens to and around us. All I am here for is to observe and make sure the transition into the New Age is going smoothly. It is also the logical consequence of the ignorance currently entertained in the market, where the many participants (especially new market entrants) are incredibly blinded by greed while not question fundamentals whatsoever.

Eventually I have nothing to gain by publishing this article, rather the opposite. Despite the obvious risks, I open myself to the shitstorm of XRP believers which is no fun to have. But that is the price I pay, and I do it consciously, because I know the reward will be the truth told, which has more value than any monetary gains in the first place. My hope is my subjective perception eventually leads others to question and investigate for themselves and shape this world to a better place by sharing their subjective insights and truths with everyone willing to listen. This is not about being “right”. This is about awareness and conscious decision-making.

Another thought: If XRP is used as a medium of exchange and is backed by fiat currency, while Crypto is the hedge against the global financial meltdown of fiat currency, isnt that an obvious conflict in there? If the economy melts down, which is a matter of time, Fiat becomes worthless anyway. What use do we have for a token that is used as a medium of exchange between Fiat currencies when Fiat currencies will eventually evaporate? Lets spin that further: IF Fiat currencies collapse, wouldn’t the trust in banks go completely extinct? Would there not be a giant outrage against these banks that manifested this situation by entertaining a economic model that creates more debt than money to ever repay it, while keeping it all hidden from the public? Would this outrage not negatively affect a system like Ripple which aims to make banks even more efficient in distracting wealth from the world’s population? While the whole world sinks in debt which cannot be repaid, while your income steadily decreases and your money gets more and more worthless every day as the FEDs printing machine is running hot, you give them the only thing that really matters when it comes to financial freedom in the future: Your precious Bitcoin.

In my subjective opinion, by supporting XRP we work towards the opposite of what we are trying to achieve in a decentralized world, to give the power back to the people to take it away from the bankers, the 1% of the 1%ers, who control this world.

If you only take one thing from this article, take this:

 

“Money is a vote. You decide what will grow and YOU will shape the face of this world for the coming New Age. Be responsible, be conscious. “

Lets wrap it up and come up with a conclusion:

XRP is 100% premined, Ripple holds 60% of the supply, controls which nodes are selected as “trustworthy” to confirm transactions, while they have paid nothing to create those tokens that people are so willingly buying at $4+ per piece and thereby make the creators insanely rich. Let us call it what it really is, digital fiat, the renewed version of the debt-based traditional fiat system, leveraged by latest technology – which eventually has nothing to do with cryptocurrency whatsoever.

And to reflect on it using Mr. Brandt’s words…

peter

When it comes to Ripple, just ask yourself… Who is the few? And who is the many?

May the Truth be with you,

CY

 

 

 

 

Elaborated: Trailing Profits & Trading Objectives

When it comes to trading, every trader has the goal to generate profits, may it be intra-day or on a longer timescale. He tries to generate profits by using technical analysis, finding patterns, or looking for potential breakouts on volume in order to get an edge. However there are multiple ways and styles to achieve that outcome. For that its necessary to know WHAT you are trading, HOW you want to trade it, and what the rules are for entering and exiting positions. This is the main pitfall for every trader, especially those who just began their trading venture.

The main reason for traders failing initially is not having a system, nor a strategy, nor defined rules. This way people enter positions, but without any objective. Hence it is very difficult to make this a profit trade, because how do you know when to exit, if you have not pre-defined the goal of this trade? Thus finding out the proper strategy that is in alignment with your personality and emotional capability is of paramount importance if you want to sustain your profitability in the long run. This article will serve as a pre-book lesson, as it is more important to release these information right now, not in days or weeks.

This article is about Strategy, Trailing Stops, initial Stop Losses and maximizing coin amounts by selling tops and rebuying lower with a set, pre-defined system. Numerous strategies will be introduced, important is just that you pick the one that naturally aligns with your style and personality.

Before putting on ANY trade, you must know your objective beforehand, otherwise you will have difficulties in exiting your position even if you are in high profits.
The first decision in this – always – is this; do you enter this trade for a short period of time (intraday), or on a longer timeframe (overnight hold)?
In order to decide on a suitable Stop- and Trailing system you must know that time horizon of your trade beforehand.

So lets get started, various strategic options are available to choose from:

Trading Strategy -Trading the breakout, leg or trend
>>>High-Resolution <<<

There so many different styles out there. Trading is obsessive, which means the longer you trade the more you are in “your game”, and only focused on specific movements and patterns to make a profit. However every trader uses a unique trading strategy, and it becomes even more individual the longer the trader refines that strategy. Therefore on a long enough time frame, there is not two traders using the exact same method to generate profits. Adaption and improvement is a natural part of the trading cycle, therefore you certainly use a slighlty different method like you did 6 months ago. Markets are always changing, so are traders.

So what are the options? I know traders who enter the market for very tiny movements, but they enter with such a big position size that it is enough to generate enough income for a month of living. This is generally called scalping, which means you enter with a considerable position size, only for a tiny movement of 0.5% or so. You do not care about where the market is going in the longer run, all you want to extract is this little movement that happens when bears close their positions and drive the price higher, when an entry is triggered. In the picture above, this is Trading the Breakout.

However there are traders that are more specialized in profiting from the whole leg resulting from a triggered entry. They try to stay in the market for several bars until the momentum declines and the trend shows some weakness. They ONLY stay in the markets for the leg, which means the whole up movement before we see any correction. At the point where the correction starts they close their position and wait for another entry, but their profits are safe. This is called Trading the Leg.

Traders with a longer time frame outlook do not bother about smaller movements, they are in for the long haul and have the patience and understanding of the market to hold a position for a very long timeframe without being tempted to sell before their target is reached (which again varies according to very different personalities out there). The are willing and able to survive all dips and flashcrashes to sell their huge bag at the top of the entire trend after it showed significant signs of weakness. Thats the strategy I apply for myself, and suggest to do so generally in order to take away the highest profit possible when time is due and the rally comes to and end.
This is called Trading the Trend.

Every of the three trading methods above will come with a set of rules that can be followed in order to get first profitable experiences under a certain “safe” pre-defined guideline. However for the reason of practicability I will focus on the latter two methods as they are most applicable to crypto trading, namely trading the Leg & the Trend.

Trading the Leg

Trading the Leg is all about finding potential trigger points that will result in major moves on high volume to the upside. Finding such an entry is comparably easy with some experiences in the markets, exiting those positions is a little more difficult, as recognizing tops is a whole science in itself, and way more difficult to master than entries alone.

In order to be profitable in this market, there are several requirements:

  1. The trader must be able to differentiate the leg (with-trend) from the consolidation (anti-trend), and only take entries that are in trend-direction. Reason for that is that movements in overall trend direction happen way quicker than the consolidation, and tend to be more profitable, less risky.
  2. The trader must be able to recognize points where much volume (thus movement) will enter the market, preferable at points where bears placed their stop-losses.
  3. The trader must be able to recognize the top in order to sell his position at the very top, or near it.

If those three requirements are fulfilled, it is likely the trader will be profitable enough to at least generate a lot of experiences in the context of this strategy, from which point they are able to refine, adjust and improve their system with every additional trade.

We focused a lot on entries in the past, as this is the gateway to make profits in the first place. I do understand the necessity for exits. However as stated earlier, there are so many strategies in trading, that it is almost impossible to give a “general exit rule”. Entries in general are way more easier than exits, but finding better exits is a natural consequence of continous trading, especially if you continue to use the same method every time you enter a trade. In the context of this lesson and the method of Trading the Leg, i will provide a stop system which equalizes the need to pick the exact top, but generates profit nonetheless. There are two different stop-methods you can apply in order to trade the leg profitable. One is more simple, the other one more complex. Both have their strength and weaknesses, so best would be to play around with both until you figure out which of them is more suitable to your trading style. So… lets start with the simple one:

Simple Stoploss

Lets assume we have placed a buy stop order at the trigger in the example picture below:

triggered1

Our order has been successfully filled with the bar pushing through the trigger and closing above. Now where do we put our stoploss (SL from here)?

First we need an initial SL in order to protect ourselves in case the trade goes very wrong. This is not so important when Trading the Trend, but it is crucial in Trading the Leg. So once we successfully opened a position, the SL will be placed at last low, like that:

triggered2

As long as the trend is intact, our SL should not be triggered. This is purely for protection purposes. It is up to you to decide if you use a HARD SL by putting a sell order in the market that activates when your SL has been hit, or if you use a rather visual SL, in which you see your actual SL triggered, but try to close your position higher than that, as often another pullback occurs. Anyway, lets go on, our trade is active and the initial SL is placed. We are good to go. So what is next? Our SL is very far away from our entry, so we have a relatively high risk yet. As soon as the entry bar that triggered closes, we will move our SL to the low of that bar, like that:

triggered3

Our risk now is smaller, but we are not yet in profits. However the next candle is a strong breakout candle:

triggered4

We therefore thighten our SL to the low of the bar once it is closed. Right now we dont have any risk at all, worst case scenario would be to be stopped out at break-even, which is a profit trade. Why is it a profit trade if we didn’t make any? Because we observed the pattern and learned something, that will in turn lead to less mistakes and more profits in the future.

While more bars appear in the chart, we always take our SL and put it on the low of the last bar once it has closed. For the sake of simplicity, I put all SL levels into the next chart:

triggered5

By using this method, we have been stopped out at a decent profit by just placing a SL at the low of each closed bar. This is the simple principle. However it is obvious that we did not profit from the whole leg, but got stopped out in a bear trap which resulted in another major leg up. We therefore missed out on potential profits, which is undesired. When we enter a trade we want to extract the maximum amount of profit there is. If that is not the case we need to refine our strategy in a way that enables us to do so, which is the responsibility of every traders himself. There is however another SL method focused on Trading the Leg, that is a little more complex. For that let me first introduce the Outside and Inside bar methodology that is needed for this system:

triggered8

So the outside bar engulfes the inside bar, which is a trading range in a lower timeframe. Trading ranges tend to be fluctuating a lot. Understanding that is crucial in order to sense why this system is a little more complex versus the simple system. So what exactly is different?

Basically the SL rule stays the same, we enter the trade at the trigger, set an initial SL and place our new SL at the low of every new closed bar. However there is an exception of the rule. In case one bar closes within the range of the previous bar (thus becoming an inside bar), we pull back our SL to the low of the bar prior to the outside bar. Reason for that is that an inside bar is basically a trading range in a lower time frame, and trading ranges tend to fluctuate and test both extremes, usually called noise. Preferably, you do not want to get trapped out due to noise when trading the leg up. Let me visualize:

triggered6

I will fast forward and put in the correct SL with every new bar so you can get a better idea of how that works in practice:

triggered7.png

This way we have not only avoided being stopped out in the bear trap like in with using the simple method, but still hold this trade with massive profits. It is a bit more complicated to understand, but definitely a more efficient SL method. However keep in mind that we need to put our SL back to a previous level (therefore risking to get less profits). In case the trade goes badly we may lose all of our previous profits this way. On the other hand however, if the trend continues to go on longer than expected our likeihood of increasing our profits is higher than with the basic method. As i said earlier, each of these methods have their own strength and weaknesses, and it is important you choose the one that is suitable to your trading style and personality. Try both, see which one works better for you. If you get stopped out of your trade in profit, wait for another promising entry, rinse, repeat. Suggested time frame for Trading the Leg is 15min upwards to daily. You can trade the legs in 5min charts when there is so much volume that you see nice shaped bars and little gaps.

Trading the Trend

Using a SL method for trading the trend is somewhat different to the one above. The main objective is not to get stopped out even by major corrections within that trend, but to ride it to the very peak. Let me find a better example of a trend and explain it within the visualization:

triggered9.png

As wordpress is kind of complicated when it comes to pictures, please go here to see the
HIGH-RESOLUTION PICTURE 
so you can actually read whats been written in there.

please mind that you can use the trend SL method also in lower timeframes like 5min or 15min. Trend does not solely mean something huge in daily or weekly charts, there is trends everywhere. At last, lets take one chart and put in all different SL methods i explained in this article so we can clearly differentiate between them:

triggered10.png

Again, click here for HIGH RESOLUTION

All stop methods have generated profit, only the Trend Swing method is still active. The chart sure is a bit messy, but a direct comparison is needed to understand the strength and weaknesses of each system. For the simple method, we have been stopped out quite early, while the complex method managed to get some higher returns out of this trade. the swing trade is still active (was later stopped out around $ 3325 using this SL method – not seen in this chart).

I do suggest to spend some time with those methods in order to find a system that suits your style, and experiment with it until you are ready to refine it based on your own experiences with that method.

Expontential Moving Averages

As we are already in the flow, let me find some words why I use EMAs as only indicator.
Generally EMAs are just a visualization of the last x bars average price movement. So for example, an EMA 20 shows the average price movement of the last 20 bars, visualized as a line. Especially to traders relying on technical analysis, moving averages are useful in assessing the strength and stability of trends. You can use any EMA value, but i found EMA 20, 50, 100 & 200 the most useful ones, especially in high time frames like H1, H4, Daily, Weekly. Due to the fact that EMAs are simple to use and highly respected in trading I like to use them as additional source of information if I am not absolutely sure about the steadiness of the trend and if there is uncertainty of how the charts continue to move. As usual, lets have a look to get a better picture of how it works:

EMA.png

HIGH RESOLUTION

EMA always work as either support or resistance, depending on how price action develops around these lines. If prices are below the EMAs, its resistance, if prices are above, EMAs act as support. Generally the zone between EMA 100 and 200 is buy zone. That means IF EMA 100 is above EMA 200. It is the same in a bear trend when EMA 100 is below 200, then the zone between those EMAs is a strong sell zone.

If prices crash after a huge rally, it is rather likely they will retest either EMA 100 or 200, or previous highs – or a combination of all of them. Hope that serves as a basic understanding of EMAs. It is certainly no genius science, it does not even matter what value you use. It solely is important that you use the same values everytime you trade, so you can observe and learn how prices react to these respective EMAs. Play around, experiment with it, both with SL methods suggested above, and various indicators.

May that be helpful for now, however this is just a basic understanding of how to apply methods to your trading style in order to refine them with your own experiences later on. So more following in the future, would be happy to get a feedback so I can improve things in the coming articles.

All the best,

yodatransparent

Update on Markets

Good Morning, Ladies, Gentlemen. Excited for a new week!

Since Bitcoin reached new All Time Highs after taking out recent high around $ 3000, we have not seen significant price action yet. We do need the confirmation trigger to get the bull run started fully on rising volume. Might take a while until we get to the trigger though, but be sure Fiat money is on the way into the markets, just needs some days to manifest. Similar to the spike in BTC, with it there is a new spike in interest concering cryptocurrencies, which is nice.

Today I wanna share an interesting chart of Coinmarketcap:

mktcap1.png

What does this chart tell us? Well, first of all, Total Market Capitalization is near its All Time High, which means if it gets triggered we see massive inflow of money into general crypto MKTcaps which will be sufficient to trigger the confirmation of BTCs earlier breakout. To be clear, the FOMO is developing, however not yet manifested. We will be looking at far higher prices next week, and especially in 1 month from now.

When it comes to ALTS, it becomes obvious that they lag a bit behind, which means that ALTS generally are in an upwsing but struggle a bit because of BTCs recent strong upmove. Which fits totally with what happened in 2013. BTC started the kickoff, ALTS lagged behind for some days, only to follow the same way a few days behind, rising exponentially to a degree in which ALTS tend to pump harder than BTC, which in turn means the ratio ALTS/BTC kicks up in due time. However it may need some more time to manifest in the markets. When BTC MKTCAP triggers its ATH, we likely see BTC being dominant until the point when ALTS MKTCAP triggers its ATH too. So generally speaking, a rising / spiking $BTC price is to be seen positively when you are positioned in ALTS, given you have the time and patience to survive the intial dip again. I generally do not advise to sell ALTS because being in there is clearly a winning move. If you want to take the risk and sell some ALTS when BTC spikes, you can obviously do it, just make sure you hit the buy button very quickly when things are about to turn upside again.

I do believe that the next two years will be the most magnificent we ever witness when it comes to excitement in the markets. imho, critical mass is about to trigger which means the crypto rally will then be superior to traditional and metal markets. Huge money inflow is expected from all kinds of industries which eventually leads to a global FOMO on indvidiual and business basis. If you have not yet a sufficient longterm strategy or portfolio, i *strongly* advice to do qualitative research about various coins and projects BEFORE $BTC triggers a new ATH. Time is running out, and if you are not well-positioned at this time, you will have problems in coping with the turbulences of coming weeks, especially if you are very shortterm oriented. There will be a time when it is very recommended to switch from Shortterm to Longterm Strategy, and the point is near.

Make sure you are absolutely satisfied with your holdings, and the coins you have picked. Money is not only energy, but also a vote. In this specific situation, it is a vote towards which coins you are going to trust in providing you a financial independent future. Look at your coins, are these coins that you trust so much that you will put all your investment into? If you are not allowed to touch your portfolio for two years, would you still be happy about your holdings or would you change it?

Some further brainstorming and research is recommended at this stage.

Besides, I decided i will post more articles on my Blog again, its been a long time and in actuality one of my most favorite things to do. So stay tuned, trade safe & have a nice trading day,

yodatransparent