Shortterm Outlook: Two Scenarios

“In a dark place we find ourselves,
and a little more knowledge lights our way.”

 
As far as I can tell – based on both Twitter Sentiment and personal messages – the market is once again at the verge of shaking out even those with strong conviction and belief.
Although the shakeout is a natural process and part of a bigger cycle, people generally are having a hard time dealing with the negative emotions inherent in such move, yet the hardest part clearly is the confusion that comes along with it.

Usually what helps most at this stage is clarity, which in turn is most rare in phases like this — in other words: the confusion is high these days, while those uttering their opinion get flamed for doing so. News tend to be very bearish in these periods, which generally is a good sign. If you think about it, news are news. The purpose of news is to both inform (although this clearly is to debate in today’s news environment), and to raise awareness, with the latter being of paramount importance. Even negative news generates attention, which in turn triggers people to make new decisions. So either way, a significant increase in news will have a positive result on the level of attention Bitcoin and Crypto will receive. Remember the media does not work in your interest, instead they even add to the inherent confusion of the market phase. So while clarity is what we are looking for most, it is also the most rare in these circumstances.

Therefore I decided to follow up on my post “The Paramount Battle of 6k” from earlier this year, where I outlined both a bullish and bearish scenario for the remainder of the year, to at least provide some perspective on what is happening and what we might expect in the shortterm future. I want to note however that my longterm view has not changed by a degree, quite the opposite. Despite prices being significantly lower than a year ago, the fundamental outlook has increased manifold. Nowadays I am more confident than ever that we have seen nothing yet, while the journey is still in its first steps.

Yet now here we stand, facing the destructive patterns of late bear trends where majority of Hodlers decide to give up finally, while smart money silently accumulates, often under disguise of institutional investors.

The difference between those two parties usually is the timeframe/horizon they operate in. While smart money is focused on the very longterm and tend to average down, those holders selling of their positions at these prices have lost their longterm outlook in favor of a shortterm panic / emotional move (finally getting rid of the burden of holding bags in far red), to end the streak of negative emotions that naturally comes with a move down.

Anyway, I will not focus on those who are selling their positions now, or even lower. I am afraid they lack a proper understanding of how markets operate, and there is not much to help them at this stage. Instead I want to provide two scenarios for the time being, as I expect the following days and weeks to be very turbulent in both directions. Due to the nature of the market phase we are currently in, both scenarios cover bearish outlooks, while one being more, the other less bearish in nature.

Scenario 1: Dip to 3k with flash wick into 2xxx area

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Higher Resolution Chart —> https://imgur.com/a/Kj3ermm

The 3000 support is widely considered to be very strong and an excellent opportunity to fill some low bids (compared to previous prices this year). It may be very likely that this bear trend will have its final capitulative wick in this area, while a touch of 2800-3000 with a potential panic wick way into the mid 2k area (due to highly leveraged trading in combination with insane volatility) is very probable. Generally I see this scenario as very likely, as 3k is definitely based on technical reasons. However the consensus among the community and technical analysis is to some degree what worries me, but doesn’t stop me from acting when price action at this level should be undeniably bullish on volume. The reason why 3k might turn out to be an excellent level to enter positions is that it is the first significant high following the previous ATH level. The thought behind this rationale is that those who entered on the old ATH breakout will remain positive in their positions, as it should be. In a prolonged uptrend, late buyers should not have an advantage over early buyers. A bullish gap between 3k and the old ATH level would make a lot of sense in this regard, as early buyers will be rewarded for their earlier entry, thus maintaining positions above break even.

Scenario 2: Retest of old ATH around $1000 mark

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Higher Resolution Chart —> https://imgur.com/a/3HtAp11

Another scenario with more bearish implications would be a clean retest of previous ATH. As outlined in previous article this level would make most sense in the story of the chart, simply as this level was the key level taken out before the bull run started. Uttering this potential level earlier this year has shocked retail investors, yet it had and still has a relatively high probability of being reached. When we look at the All Time Log Chart it becomes plainly obvious that this is the paramount level where most investors look at trying to get a supreme opportunity to enter longterm positions on such hefty bargain.

In other words: If prices reach the $1000 mark I consider this a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to enter right into the violent capitulation of longterm believers; the point of maximum financial opportunity with as less risk as possible. Of course there will be those saying that the risk of BTC dying with a dip to or below $1000 is simply too high, I tend to differ. This would be the retest of breakout point, and I will make sure to buy as much as I can at this level. 1090, 1096, 1166, 1175 are the levels I specifically observe in this regard, although those levels may vary depending on which exchange data you use.
The mark that I remember most dominantly is 1090, so any price action at this level will very likely become a buy in my playbook. To make it simple: Any retest of 1090-1200 or below is the buy opportunity of a lifetime, and I will not hesitate should it come to this situation.

Last Remarks

Have faith. The Crypto Journey does not end here, it is merely in the early steps of beginning. You asked for institutional money entering the game, this is what we experience now. They don’t want you to participate in the biggest wealth transfer the world has seen, and they wish you’d capitulate for breadcrumbs so they can accumulate more. They have more time, more money, and more skill. Don’t do them the favor, stay strong and faithful in what you are trying to achieve. Everything else is just temporary noise. Do what you can with the cards you have been dealt, and stop complaining that life is tough sometimes. It is all part of the game, and the purpose is for you to learn to adjust to life circumstances in the most effective way. Learn from this what you can, and then move on. Stop complaining about your losses, think about how you can use this situation to your favor. Drop the negativity, and develop a positive outlook.

This Too Shall Pass. The Bull will return.

May the Faith be with you,

CY

 

 

 

 

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No Reflection, No Reward

It’s been a long time since last post and indeed it is time for some reflection. Do you remember the bear market of 2014/2015? I entered crypto right in early 2014 after the bubble had popped, although luckily I did not buy in yet as I intended to do proper research before. I did not have much money and could not afford to just buy for the sake of being positioned, instead I knew i need to sniper and basically go all-in to have any significant reward whatsoever.

Although I was trading for some two years already I had not mastered the Art of Technical Analysis in any way. I was both obsessed and passionate about charts (which has never changed), but needed to learn more before being able to trade profitable in a constant manner. I understood that entering a trend very early when it develops and sell at the very top is the very key to success in longterm investing. Duration of investment might be somewhere between 2-10 years or even longer, but there is a reason Warren Buffet is among the richest people in the world. However Forex was not the place to be if you are looking to plant early seeds in innovative projects — and luckily at that same time the whole world of crypto opened up to me.

In the bearmarket of 14/15 I taught myself exclusive how to buy bottoms. It was the thing I needed most at that time. I had no work, and no responsibility in the first place. I was ready, willing and able to jump into trading and investing full time without any restrictions except of monetary nature. For years I slept 4-5 hours per night on average.
I certainly had all the time in the world and literally nothing to lose, but all ressources at my disposal.

It took me months of observation, a dozen reads of the same three books and endless practical (and often painful) experiences to get anywhere to deeper understanding. I was getting better day by day, as per compounding of lessons learned aka learning how to connect the dots and gain deeper knowledge. The learning process has never really stopped, however it enabled me to buy the altcoin bottom in March 2017 which was the beginning of it all.

The reason I am articulating this article right now is of different nature. It all started when I realized that in order to become a complete trader it is not enough to simply buy bottoms and sell tops. It is about the ability to read, understand and react properly to the market constantly with only a small range of error. Trading is about mental control and emotional discipline, about constantly learning and progression no matter what.
It’s no secret that the primary reason for people getting rekt is that they are either trading with too much risk, using capital they cannot afford to lose, or basing trades on emotions, or having no clue at all. Alternatively, a combination of those.

So I figured the very most effective way to master emotional discipline and better understanding movements in the market in volatile conditions is to enter the area of shortterm trading, something that i naturally never did before. The point that stopped me from venturing in this area earlier was the thought: “Why would I risk a % of my entire investment in the biggest innovation of the century just in order to scalp some dollars more out of the market?”

WRONG. Gotta admit when you have erred or have come to a conclusion that better fits what really is, right?. I still do not understand those folks who have 100% of their investment in crypto in some margin positions, may you rest in peace. I do understand however the school of thought to trade shortterm with a small fraction of the entire capital, presuming you know what you are doing of course.

I therefore have created for myself a challenge, a bootcamp scenario, in which I am able to learn lessons without risking much capital at the same time. I will outline the whole process below just in case shortterm mastery is something you deem valuable to pursue.

Learning always comes at a cost. No matter what you intend to learn, you always have a price to pay. It might be monetary, energetically or time-wise, but you will inevitably invest so you can reap the lessons you seek to learn. No different here. Knowing that, it makes sense to start learning lessons with as less monetary investment as possible, but with a greater share of energetic and time investment. You will not master trading through making huge profits, but by time spent on the screen, actually observing the movements of the market, understanding the emotions of market participants and in turn, the eximation of their reaction to changing market conditions. It is said that it takes about 10,000 hours of serious work in an area to become an expert. Nowadays due to easier accessibility and more effectiveness in general this number is estimated to have raised to 12,000. Anyway, I am losing the red thread, let’s go with the Challenge, here is what I did:

I transferred 0.03 BTC to a new wallet. From there I sent 0.01 BTC to my newly created Bitmex Account I setup specificially for this scenario. I would not say I am a particular fan of Bitmex, its a graveyard of ignorant traders who underestimate the market. Many have been REKT at this place, so great care we must take. But undeniable, money is to be made there. This is the school of thought behind that move:

Three shots a 0.01 BTC. Why?
We will use 0.01 BTC for the first account, with the following initial conditions:

The venture is considered a success if trading balance on has increased to 1 BTC.
The venture is considered a fail if the trading balance is REKT, below 0.0001 BTC.

If you have REKT your first account – which is likely – reflect on what you have learned. You can do so mentally or in written form for yourself, but without reflection no learning. Pause for a day, then proceed with the 2nd account, refilling the account with 0.01 again.

However there are further conditions to be applied to these accounts:

1) Must not trade with leverage above x25. The reason is it is not about the money in the first place, and using lower leverage increases the likelihood of you experiencing more trades, thus you have more points where you could potentially learn something valuable, that in turn, can be used in the future to extract more profit from the market. The lower the leverage the more patterns you will be able to observe, thus the more you will learn.

2) Always use a Stoploss. Sometimes, when you have reacted too late (which naturally happens from time to time), you will be tempted to use your liquidation level as your SL. After all it is “only” 0.01 BTC. Do not make this mistake, set a proper SL at a level where you would say the setup you have entered for has failed. Take the loss to fight and live another day. Getting liquidated isn’t getting you anywhere so avoid it at all cost.

3) Do not trade 1 minute charts solely. Of course for shortterm trading it is tempting, but I recommend to focus on higher timeframes. If you are looking to trade intraday to learn most (due to many patterns unfolding over the course of a day) use 30 or 15min chart as reference. This means at the beginning of the day you assess the higher timeframe charts to conclude whether the market is trending up or down, what the key levels are and where support/resistance is expected. There is nothing wrong with 1m charts in general but your trades need to be aligned with those higher timeframes and the overall momentum of the market. In my trading always use a pair of charts for reference. Usually I am trading Daily charts, but I check details in 2h. If i trade 5 minute charts, I am using 1hr or 30min charts as a reference, to be safe im in the direction of the trend. As a starter I would suggest to trade 3 or 5 minute charts with 30 minute or 1hr as reference.

4) Experiment with different order styles so you have a toolset that you fully understand. There is nothing worse than placing a stoploss using a wrong order type and it doesn’t get activated, and you get liq’d instead. Do yourself a favor, learn the different order types, even if it is with 1 contract only, experiment so you can use them effectively in the future.

5) For the purpose of effective learning, track all trades of yours in a special sheet. I use the freeware charts of Beam to quickly enter the current balance after I closed the trade. After you closed the day, save this chart for future reference.

It will give you great insight into your trading mentality. You will likely see patterns unfold which then can be used to analyze how you are being triggered by the market and how to decrease this risk in the future. It is simply a tool to better understand how you are trading and which patterns you are unconsciously forming in your trading game.
Additionally, you can use a trading diary which is certainly effective, in which you make notes on entry price, SL, thoughts behind the trade and target, but that’s of course fully optional. Example of such trade tracking is given below:

test123.png
As a sidenote, it certainly helps to set the Bitmex balance to mXBT to handle trades and balance more optimally.

6) Define personal rules that suits your trading style. Eventually every trader has a unique style, it is your mission and responsibility to find your own style and master it fully. In my case I tend to have my Stoploss too far away from current price action, so I restricted myself to have a SL no greater than 50 USD, no matter which margin used. Choose what suits you most, but have some ruleset in which you are allowed to operate to reap maximum effect (learning) on your investment. Write it down for clarity before you begin the challenge.

Remember, this is solely about learning. It is not about the money invested, nor the profits reaped. BUT if you do well, and learn the lessons you inevitably have to learn as a trader, you will be able to increase your capital from 0.01 to 1 BTC and then, you have the fundamental understanding and skills needed to turn this into another 100x. It is certainly possible, the only factors determining if you are going to be successful is your ability to reflect and learn the lessons provided by the market, the dedication you put into that work and your toughness & strength in overcoming mental resistances.

One more important thing. Depending on your current portfolio 3x 0.01 BTC is simply not feasible and not necessary in the first place. Expect, first of all, that you will lose your entire capital, this is the only way to trade free of barriers in your mind. Transfer the money to a new wallet in the thinking that it will never come back, easy as that. Thus if you are here for the learning – as I am – you would think about only sending 3x 0.001 or even 3x 0.0001 BTC. It really is not about the number of contracts you can afford. At the same time a 100x in profit should make at least some difference. You are the only one who can choose how much you are willing to risk, but I want to make sure and emphasize that in case of uncertainty, choose rather less than more. I don’t want you to destroy your portfolio, I want you to learn something valuable that you can use in the future to make profit, not immediately now.

Of course before presenting such challenge to you I tested it before myself. It is the most valuable thing I have done in the last couple of months and I will continue to trade because there is so much more to learn. One more thing to have in mind. The trading of crypto will not get easier in the future. We saw the effect of institutional investors entering in end of 2017, trading got way more difficult. This actually is the reason why I exited Forex for Crypto, because the trading here was so much cleaner. This will change when more institutions jump on board and bring their wicked trading bots with them.
If there is a time to learn these things in a relatively easy manner, now is probably the best moment to start.

May you extract real knowledge, and may the Learning be with you,

CY

————————————————————————————————————————————–

Just in case you want to use my reflink intentionally to create a new account, I just drop it here for your voluntary use:

https://www.bitmex.com/register/Ba27JM

If you have done something similar or want to share your experiences and/or progress in this challenge, comments under the tweet are much appreciated, so we can discuss effectively and potentially adjust this method so it might transform to something even more productive and useful. All the best and happy learning.

 

Dusk or Dawn

After triggering several key levels yesterday, $BTC dropped almost 10% within 24 hours.

Although this move looks very violent at first glance, it has stopped (for now) in a territory which can be considered support, leaving room for a potential bullish reversal taking place still, although momentum clearly is on the side of the bears. Let us examine what happened, how much damage has been done and what it might mean for the short- to medium-term future.

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Above: Violent move on significant volume, breaking the previous Low, Bearish Momentum initiated.

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With the break below the $7k Low $BTC also went through the lower triangle trendline. The significant volume on the breakout bar indicates the signal is true, so I would be very cautious trading these days. However, whether or not the triangle has been broken to the downside requires more confirmation, a case which I will outline further below.

triangle2.pngCLICK FOR LARGER PICTURE

The longer term situation in $BTC is as follows:

Lower Highs meeting Lower Lows which defines a stable downtrend, interrupted by the first Higher Low around $6425, which potentially indicates a Major Trend Reversal, if it can be confirmed with a Higher High. In a nutshell, we are currently in a bear trend, with the potentiality of reversing the trend, if bulls can follow up with both strength and significant volume.

Such upside scenario can only be invalidated by taking out $6425 (Higher Low) which would make this bottom invalid for further analysis. Instead, with a break of the $6425 Low $BTC would return to the pattern Lower Highs, Lower Lows aka downtrend.

As discussed in prior posts and tweets I expected a very strong impulsive move in either direction. Although we dropped around 10% within a day, it was not as violent as I anticipated, which lets me doubt the reality of this bear breakout, or at least requires more confirmation. What i actually expected was a cascade in either direction as Stop-levels of both bears and bulls are very close to each other, as indicated below:

cascade.pngCLICK FOR LARGER PICTURE

Instead of triggering those bull stops in a cascade while printing a huge bearish candle on massive volume, bulls managed to stop this move before $6425 could be triggered, which indicates there is still solid support at this level attempting to protect that $6425 Low.

Of course quite frankly, this can still happen once we take out the Low of this daily breakout bar at $6618 and slide through $6425 thereafter, but the fact that it did not happen straight away shows me the last word has not yet been spoken yet.

The Bearish Case

The (potential) bearish case has been discussed in my last article more in-depth.
As the analysis is still valid, I leave the link here:

https://cryptoyoda1338.wordpress.com/2018/05/26/the-paramount-battle-of-6k/

In the conclusion of that article I stated that:

Any Close below $7260 might trigger a cascade of stop orders fueling the leg down, which would put pressure on bulls to defend $6400 Low which is a crucial key level to hold in order to avoid a prolonged bear market.”

In short, we did trigger the cascade somewhat, and broke the $7260 Low but did not manage to slide through the $6425 Low, which is the crucial levels for bulls to defend. The bulls are still in the game as the cascade has not been fully activated. However for the moment being, bearish momentum prevails, resulting in likely further attempts to drive the price down below this important level.

Quite simply, a close below indicated key level $6425 (Previous Higher Low, protected by bulls) would increase the risk of seeing the cascade unfold in the coming days, triggering more stops below $6000 and lower.

The Bullish Case

If we change the perspective to the bulls it becomes apparent that there is solid support at these key levels which first must be broken in order to confirm the current bearish momentum.

support levels.pngCLICK FOR LARGER PICTURE

Currently residing on a level that is considered to be breakout support of several previous bottoms, bulls might try and regain control over the price around here, especially by protecting the $6425 Low (where their stops are being placed) until selling has exhausted. Needless to say that this would end up in a massive bear trap, but for this possibility the bulls need a close above last High at $7756 which is quite far from today’s perspective. Although this remains a possibility it needs to be added that generating a $1000 upmove while bearish momentum is still active requires a lot of both buyers and volume.

Given $BTC is trading at it’s 2018 Lows it can be well considered to be a bargain at these prices, so IF bull momentum can be generated before taking out $6425 Low, it could potentially make the recent downmove a bear trap, resulting in a buying spree, thereby fooling as many traders as possible.

Conclusion

Both cases are still valid, although pressure clearly is on the bulls. With an impulsive bearish move with significant volume bears managed to regain control over the market as of now. As we are still in bullish breakout point support, any bullish signal generated on higher timeframes might potentially be viewed as a bargain buying opportunity.

On the other side, any close below $6425 and finally $6000 puts further pressure on the bulls and I am not confident that prices can hold this altitude if bull are not able to defend their stops.

I remain neutral to slightly bullish until $6425 Low has been taking out as a confirmed signal, as the chance of a reversal is still given, as we are trading in a range of double breakout point support.

I stated yesterday that $1000 would be a consequence of the $7000 takeout, but I am no longer confident that this might be the case without further evidence by means of fresh Lower Lows and definitely $6425 takeout.

Logically, the triangle has been attempted to break down, but needs further confirmation in order to outrule a potential bear trap and/or capitulative move. As long as we do not confirm this bearish impulsion, bulls still have the opportunity to drive up the price without too much damage done.

Intuitively, I do not trust this move and expect a bullish countermove in the coming hours/days, which can be used for further assessment.

I do not recommend to trade in these times, I personally will just sit back, relax and observe what is going on. Wish you all the best, and hope you survived the emotional rollercoaster yesterday. I will keep updating in the coming days when more information is available. For now, have a great day, evening, time, wherever you are.

CY

The Paramount Battle of 6k

Good Afternoon everyone,

after returning from some weeks of well-deserved holiday, it is now time to focus on the recent market developments and paint a refreshed picture of what is to come to the markets in the neartime future. This is the battle of 6k key level zone.

Although the cryptosphere has already erased a great deal of profits made in the run-up end of last year, markets do not seem to be out of the woods just yet. Recent market activities hasled to much confusion building up about what will be the future of the cryptosphere, especially in the short to mid-term run.

As both bullish and bearish arguments are valid as of now, I will focus on both and engage in discussion about either scenario.

Since peaking just shy of $20,000 in mid December 2017 $BTC lost around 70% value within just less than two months, locally bottoming out at $6k exact. Likewise, the rest of the sphere suffered similar consequences, sending the markets lower across the board.

When viewing the Weekly chart it becomes apparent that the shortterm bubble, which was the run up towards $20k, has popped. Whether or not we will continue generating higher levels of valuation in the future cannot be told from this fact alone. What is known however is that we must see a consolidation period which retests previous levels of support which sparked the 2017 rally in the first place. This movement can generally be measured by using the stages of a bubble theory which indicates that after every Mania Phase there is a Blow Off Phase following suit. Usually that means gains will be erased, new bagholders generated, while businesses that entered during the earlier hype will be put under pressure as prices are declining in the entire sphere.

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During the previous bull run $BTC generated Higher Highs and Higher Lows consecutely until hitting the 20k mark, which resulted in a change of pattern – appearing with the first Lower High, getting confirmed with the following Lower Low. Technically this has become a short-term downtrend as Lower Highs, Lower Lows are being printed on the chart. The $6k level remains of paramount importance, a battle likely deciding the fate of BTC for the upcoming months, as the $6k level is the last Lower Low, which means that bears will try to generate another Lower Low to fully confirm that we move towards a more prolonged bear market.

However, the occurence of the first Higher Low in this yet short-term bear market disrupts the bearish view somewhat. The Higher Low formed at $6400, when markets tried to retest the $6k Low we printed earlier, but failed to generate new Lows for the time being.

If we have a closer look at the 3d chart, it clearly shows the pattern in more detail with consecutive Lower Highs & Lows formed until disrupted by the $6400 Higher Low, meaning we now have reached a Lower High – Higher Low decision point, which in turn means that…

… any new High above $9990 would mark the continuation of the major uptrend that topped out at 20k and would also indicate this was solely a corrective move while the uptrend is still intact. We would then have Higher Lows & Higher Highs = uptrend+ solid support at $10k underneath:

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… any new Low below $6425 would mark the continuation of this current months-long bear market and would also indicate we may expect even lower prices and a prolonged period of depression before things turn green again. Let us start with discussing such bear scenario:

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The Bearish Scenario – The Month to Year-long bear market

 

Taking out the $6400 Low would likely lead to more volume selling into the $6000 critical support which is quite close with just $400 in difference. At the point when $6400 breaks on volume panic might unfold in the market, sending prices way below $6000 which would indeed mark a prolonged bear market incoming. So what are potential levels to be retested before we turn green again?

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As mentioned before, usually lower levels of support will be retested that sparked the previous rally. So in that regard, $5000, $3000 and $1300 are such levels, being previous Highs, now turned into support. Which level will eventually be tested is up to discussion and depends on the degree of panic resulting from the $6000 break among other factors.

It is also interesting that the measured move down from the top structure points towards $1500~ as a potential target, should this pattern unfold. As said on numerous occasions before, although unlikely from today’s perspective, a retest of the old 2013 ATH around the $1000 mark would make a lot of sense to me after taking out $6k, purely from a technical perspective, not taking into considerations fundamentals or personal feelings about it.

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What makes the $1000 mark even more interesting is the fact it is also the next critical level of support when viewed in log chart:

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Coming from the thought that the All Time High at $1090 back in 2013/2014 was such a significant point in the chart, a retest of that level under normal circumstances would be most logical. I say under “normal circumstances”, because this is crypto, and despite the apparent bear market possibility is real, I remain patiently bullish for numerous reasons.


The Bullish Scenario – Continuation of Major Uptrend &
Re-newed Global Fomo

 

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Looking at the 3d chart, $BTC has finished a three legged correction down from the top, and built a double bottom formation around the $6000 Lows, indicating the demand at these levels became higher than the supply, thus turning around the price. Bears here failed to generate a new Low under $6k, thus bulls may attempt to take over the market, protecting the $6000 / $6400 Lows in order to drive up the price later. Of course, should the Double Bottom Low get triggered below however, those eager bulls will get stopped out, adding to the evolving panic in the markets. This is not of concern right now, as we have several bullish indications suggesting an uptrend continuation is more likely at this stage:

$BTC currently resides in buy zone between EMA 100 and 200 on 3d chart, which has already been tested two times prior ($6000, $6400). This may be the third and final test of this level before the trend resumes upwards.

We also have a clear structure building up in form of a triangle which might go either way, although generally being accepted as a continuation pattern. A break of the upper trendline in this context however would make a potential 10k attack more likely, while fooling as many traders as possible using the bearish symmetrical triangle as a guideline for their trading. The volume is steadily declining indicating that a spark is coming to the markets in the short-term, igniting the next major move.

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On the Daily chart the current situation is more vivid, showing the triangle in more details. What is interesting is that both EMA 100 and 200 are in the same spot while EMA 20 is slightly sloping down. EMAs being bundled almost always indicates a strong move is in the making, more powerful the higher the timeframe. It should be also noted that the EMAs still indicate the uptrend is intact, but time is against the bulls now. They need to drive the price back up above those EMAs for the uptrend to resume. At the same time, Volume is generally descending which indicates that the current corrective move is about to lose steam and bulls might be taking over soon.

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For a bullish move to be successful, all needed here is a strong volume push upwards in order to trigger new buyers into the market who want to position themselves very early for the next run, potentially before 10k gets attacked / broken. Remember, as soon as 10k psychological level is broken and retested, resistance will turn into major support and 10k will be protected by buyers from this point onwards. Thus what is attempted is to position as early as possible, with as less risk as possible, with the greatest distance to 10k as possible to be safe for holding in the future (as entry levels won’t get retested again).

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An even closer look into 12h gives a good picture of what is to be expected. Prices have retested previous breakout support while generating a three touches + failed breakout pattern which often is the beginning of the next uptrend as sellers sold into the bottom at the downside break below trendline. We also have some rising volume as a result of this failed dip, indicating it might be bulls turn to control the market in the coming days and weeks.

For truly confirming a bullish view, what I would like to see is a strong trigger of the indicated green line with rising volume entering the market, then a break of the upper wedge trendline with both accelerated speed and volume. Reason why I consider this a realistic scenario is the fact that bears and shorts have been trapped in this last failed dip below the wedge trendline, and are forced to liquidate/close their positions on any move up, thus contributing to the upside motion generated by potential early buyers.


Conclusion

For the moment, bears remain in control of the short-term market, but at the same time indicate exhaustion may be near. Bulls are still sitting at the sidelines waiting for the right moment to make a move and will likely protect price levels below $7000 until $6400 which is the last major low. For a major uptrend continuation the $6400 low needs to hold, and bulls are very well aware of that, thus will likely do everything at their disposal to make prices stay above that level. Bears on the other hand need the $6400 break for the bear trend to continue, so a clear battle is emerging between both camps that will result in the sparking of a new trend in either direction.

Considering bears are still driving market’s direction for now, another dip down into the $7000 – $6900 area is a possibility, albeit unlikely given we had the three touches + failed breakout pattern which is usually very reliable. Should the local bottom at $7260 not hold, bulls will be under pressure and both reactions of market participants as well as volume should be closely observed.


In a Nutshell

 

Bull Case:

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LARGE PICTURE

Close above $7655 would trigger the failed breakout pattern, putting pressure on bears.
Break of $10k would confirm the Continuation of the Major Uptrend & would lead to new support formed at that level, protecting lower entries.

Bearish View:

12

LARGE PICTURE

Any Close below $7260 might trigger a cascade of stop orders fueling the leg down, which would put pressure on bulls to defend $6400 Low which is a crucial key level to hold in order to avoid a prolonged bear market.

~

Right now I remain slightly bullish for the coming Days, albeit both bullish and bearish scenarios being realistic possiblities. Price action in those coming days will give further clues in which direction we are heading and should be closely observed. We must not forget that although we have been in depression in recent months that an uptrend continuation is not only a possibility but remains very likely. All we need here is a strong push upwards and new buying interest will emerge, quickly driving up the price back towards ATH. Whether or not we may take out 20k in one move or not can be better assessed at a later stage with more significant price action at our disposal.

If I had to bet on one scenario playing out, it would be the a bullish break of the developing triangle in 3d chart, then a Cup & Handle formation leading up to a 20k ATH break, renewed global media attention and journey towards $50k+, roughly indicated below.

13

LARGE PICTURE

The Battle of $6000 will likely decide BTC’s fate for the rest of the year, so close observation is advised for the coming days.

May the Charts Be With You,

CY

 

The Inevitable Crash of the Century

“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.”
– Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury – Sept. 1929

Fellow Readers,

For the first time ever I am way more focused on the traditional stock markets than on Crypto and so should everyone, for several reasons, but foremost:
This time is different.

Ever since i bothered to get down the rabbit hole of how our world really works I knew that we are living in the Biggest Bubble of All Times that will inevitably burst in due time. The question never really was whether it bursts, but rather when the crash will occur and what implications such scenario will have on our daily lives. Although latter is somewhat speculative, the former is actually not far away.

For the first time ever humans artifically created the “Everything-Bubble” based on a toxic economic system that generates more debt than money to repay, and which demands constant parabolic growth on a global scale. It does not take a genius to figure out that this is not a sustainable way of living and that it will come crumbling down if certain catalysts trigger fear and panic among traditional investors spreading globally.

If you think about it in an objective way, we humans are like cancer for the planet.
I think Agent Smith was pretty clear about it in the movie Matrix, he actually nailed it:

Agent Smith: “I’d like to share a revelation I had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague, and we are the cure.”

Is it not like that? When we compare our way of living to that of every other species on the planet, we must inevitably come to the conclusion that we are one amongst millions of species that are not living in tune with Nature. We completely lost the connection to what we really are, and the pain and suffering in the world is the natural result of that fallacy. We exploited the planet and its natural, precious resources for centuries, especially more in the recent decades, to a degree that we now face our own destruction in the next years if we do not manage to make a 180 degree turn, which is however only a limited option as those in control have no interest in making a turn whatsoever and will resist such change with all tools at their disposal.

When we maintain a system that demands constant growth, while resources needed to fuel that growth are limited, we pretty much have set ourselves checkmate. You cannot sequeeze more juice out out of a lemon than what it naturally contains, and we will soon figure that out. And in a way it is a justified reckoning. All these years we all looked away, being ignorant about what is happening, indirectly supporting this system by contributing our time and energy into that, or simply ignoring the warning signs that are here for decades already, very obvious in plain sight, all of this will hit us in the face rather sooner than later. Yet we stand there unprepared and mostly unknowing. If you as a baby boomer thought you will make it to your death bed before that actually happens, you may be in for a surprise.

We have allowed this to happen – even if unknowingly – thus we will eventually suffer from the consequences, even if we have not established this toxic system ourselves.

We passively agreed to the system, but we actively suffer from the consequences eventually. I am talking about everyone, no matter where they live and what they do, what they think and what they are capable of, to be affected significantly in their daily lives which is so dependent on the state and the system we fuel by our compliance when it finally comes crumbling down.

This is a warning.

There is one specific characteristic in man that has been completely mastered, and that is Ignorance. We are able to live for decades pretending nothing is wrong, although every day things get worse. We however decide to look away because we don’t feel an immediate effect on our own personal lives. We are so consumed by technology, social media, News, Netflix and Crypto and everyday worries that we forget everything else completely. Most of us know that the system we run today cannot be sustained in the future, but rarely anyone is able or willing to look beyond that. I have tried several times to make aware of these circumstances, however ignorance and trust in the old system is high among daily life relationships.

It seems that nobody is willing to talk about a potential collapse of the society as we know it, even if the risks are very evident for such scenario. If you are afraid of talking about it in the first place, what do you think how you will deal with the actual event!?

In a state where humanity is mostly sleeping, absolutely unconscious and blind to what is happening at a larger scale, we will be beyond helpless as a species when things get turbulent. The only thing to avoid such a paralysis is to actually prepare by the means of information and actual physical preparation. No one becomes a prepper because they overly enjoy it, but because it is necessary and the logical consequence of the information they have accumulated. Being prepared by any means is not something that is weird, it is acting responsibly, while everybody else continues to be busy looking away.

Sure we can pretend everything will go on just as in the past, because its comfortable. But as comfortable it is, it is just as unlikely. This is not meant as an offence, most of us have been spawned into this system and not actively developed it. In fact, nobody really understands the system which is so important to our daily lives.

Yet looking away is not the solution, truth is. We already KNOW that those in control have no interest in change, even if it ultimatively means their own destruction. It is up to us people to accept the responsibility to make such a change. But this is no news. It feels like mankind has been going in circles for centuries, never learning from their mistakes whatsoever, while we declare ourselves as a developed civilization.
One step forward, two steps back.

Although I could go on forever diving deeper into the wrongdoings of our species, it is not the time and place, and certainly not the aim of this article. The actual objective of this piece is to make aware of the Global Everything Bubble and to indicate that the point of no return (The Crash) is by no means very far away. The mood of the market has already changed and seems to be getting worse day by day. Generally I would say that this indicates a possibility of accumulation, however this is clearly not the case in such altitude, while real economic data are going down. Since Fiat is not backed by Gold anymore, it is actually backed by economic data. When these economic data keep tumbling down, but stocks are still rising parabolically, that’s a warning sign that should be taken seriously. The market has been propelled by margin, debt and inflation for decades and are artificially supported by the Money-Creators themselves, buying up their own stuff. When they will stop doing so, which is already indicated and widely discussed, there will be no buyers left: Markets will collide. This is not the only weapon of choice, they have another one: raising interest rate. At this stage, after borrowing insane sums of money on an unseen scale, the whole world is running on debt which cannot be repayed. Almost every institution, bank and business have active loans that they are already struggling to repay. When the FED further increases interest rates, those business will collapse as they have to pay back even more than previously. And what happens when large institutions and banks collapse? They drag all others down with it, thus due to the interconnectivity of global commerce basically everything. This will in turn trigger more liquidations while nobody is there to buy the falling knife. Oh no, I believe at this stage of madness we will not be able to hinder such a meltdown by any means. The banks tried it in 2009, and they managed to support falling prices with inflationary injections. I am talking about firing up the printing press and support the economy with that fresh money to avoid a total collapse. It worked, but since they have printed parabolic amounts of new fiat in recent years follwing that 09 crash, this option is no longer really available. Besides, we have not learned anything from the 08/09 crisis and things look significantly worse today than a decade ago. Once panic kicks in, there will be no buyers whatsoever, and prices will melt down globally. We do not know where it will end, and whether it will recover, but there is multiple scenarios that i deem as relatively realistic in this regard, although i will cover only the following in this article, others in due time.

1) Global Markets will melt down

In the case of a severe collapse that does not quickly recover, the system will quickly become unfunctional for a long long time. If you think it further, banks and businesses collapsing means not getting fiat at your bank, nor buying stuff you need. No proper transportation, what about supply of water and electricity? Uncertain. What is sure is that if 90% of businesses are forced out of the economy because they cannot pay back the loans they took, no one is going to work as nobody can afford workers anymore. When they feel the impact on their personal life due to shortage in water, food or electricty, they will be at their families trying to provide instead of going to work when they are not getting paid. Just look at what happened in Venezuela. If you think that is the other side of the world and has nothing to do with us, think again. We have witnessed the same stuff in Weimar and many other occasions. Collapsing fiat is nothing out of the ordinary, in fact it is rather normal. Every single fiat currency that has been used has finally collapsed to its real value, which is the value of the paper it is printed on. To say it in Voltaire’s words:

voltaire.jpg

Yet while we have 100% proof that every single existing fiat currency has gone to zero, we are not ready to accept that those we maintain in our world today will share the same fate eventually. Are you prepared?

If you have no idea what is happening in an economic meltdown, I encourage you to study the Venezuela case. If you are in crypto, chances are you waste a lot of time scanning charts that don’t move and scrolling through Twitter. Spend your time more wisely, acquire information that are crucial for what is inevitably coming. Trusting on Crypto is nice, but a gamble in a world so unstable politically and economically. If the electricity grid goes offline as a consequence of everything colliding, there is no crypto no more. Albeit unpleasant, I encourage you to think about it and take appropiate measures so you have a solid foundation of knowledge for the new Age following that turbulent time. Because the old system needs to go so we have the opportunity to create a better one.

Well, lets get to work and have a look at the crashes of 1929, 1987 and 1990 in both Dow Jones and the Nikkei.

29

Surging prices, parabolic top, retest of major trendline & failure to hold above, break of key support, collapse.

1987

Again surging prices, parabolic top, retest of major trendline & failure to hold above, break of key support, then collapse.

nikkei 1990

Same thing, different disguise.

One thing that stands out is that the pattern is largely the same. It has something to do with the parabolic price advance prior and the key trendline broken, at which point the market is so heavy that it cannot sustain further growth. The collapse is a natural consequence of the prior price action, and by no means unusual in markets. We have used the following chart in crypto extensively, and there is no fundamental difference here:

phase

Zerohedge managed to put it in a nutshell fairly well:

“The similarities are astonishing: prices rise along the trendline, then the advance accelerates and peaks, the trendline survives an initial test and a rebound commences. A second test of the trendline fails, and after the indexes break through, a water-fall decline begins.”

After looking at these charts, lets have a look at nowadays S&P 500 to see if there are similarities:

dow today.png

Ouch. We have already broken the longterm trendline, while markets struggle to maintain valuation above it. We therefore must conclude from previous examples that right now the markets are too heavy to continuing it’s rise and will likely collapse soonish. When taking the bubble chart and trying to pinpoint where traditional markets are right now, there must be at least the realization that we are in a very fragile state when it comes to global markets. The difference this time however is that this will result in a major global crisis, way stronger than in previous crashes outlined above, due to the nature of an ever-increasing globalized, interconnected economy fueled by margin and debt.

phase.png

dow today.png

The key level to watch is the 2580 mark, the last major low in the S&P 500 chart. If that one fails, we get a Lower Low after a Lower High, which means downtrend, and we will see a blood bath in proportions we might have not witnessed before. Historically it is safe to say that those turbulent times generate many tense & emotional events and attempts of the government to gain more control over the people.

In this regard it should be noted that China has managed to trade Oil for Yuan. Given the fact that the U.S. invaded every single country attempting to bypass the PetroDollar in this regard, and the fact that the U.S. needs war in order for their economy to grow, we might see turbulent moves at the time the markets collide. The fact that both Russia and China are on the way of establishing new ways of trade and collaboration, which is clearly not in the interest of the U.S. is leading to a very tense political situation. Be very aware of what is happening. Just like the state likes to introduce tricky laws in the past when everybody is distracted watching The Soccer World Cup, or similar, they will enforce even heftier laws when everybody is distracted by the world wide crash of traditional markets, likely having to do with more surveillance and limiting rights of citizens further.

One thing that indicates that we have some pretty turbulent and violent times ahead is the $VIX, which measures the volatility in the S&P 500. We can see that it spiked when the S&P had its first strong leg down which triggered the trendline in early February, which implies that volatility increased significantly when the panic first kicked in. From the chart below, which is pretty bullish, we must conclude that the next legs down in the S&P will propel the volatility even further. When looking at the VIX chart, EMAs are aligning upwards, Higher Lows are already established. All it needs is a strong push though that resistance of previous Highs to trigger a volatility avalanche.

vix.png

We live in dangerous times, and many are waking up to the fact about now. There is much at stake when it comes to the future of mankind, and we must learn to live up the responsibility to shape this world. There must be better solutions than those we currently entertain.

However not all things are that bad, although the emphasis of this particular article suggests so. Having a look at the Crypto Markets, things look somewhat brighter, although we are not completely through yet.

total mktcap ex.png

As outlined in the chart above, we currently are at support of a major trendline connecting two previous highs. After a volume peak at top we had declining volume on the move down, which will likely be ended with a volume spike up, as soon as sellers are exhausted, which might be here or somewhat lower in buy range of the chart above. The latter would mean we are potentially in for another weaker leg down before things get better, although it must not be. Another chart that is very interesting is the Turtle BTC Buy Market Percentage Chart, which shows the upside reversal is already under construction.

buy marketSource: https://www.turtlebc.com/tools/buy_percentage?period=3years

The $BTC 3D chart tells us we are in undecided territory, however clear trigger points will decide the further fate of BTC in the neartime future.

btc

$7240 was the last low, which was also a bull reversal bar at EMA 200 and a potential second long signal. Any trigger below that candle would lead to those bulls getting stopped out, which might trigger another stop level below $6000, however somewhat more unlikely as both EMA 100 and 200 act as support below.

$9177 was the last local high. If triggered, we would be looking at three Higher Lows and a Higher High which would lead buyers back into the market for a retest attempt of the $11788 double top structure, which in turn may lead to fomo by those who sold their stack in the hope of accumulating way cheaper. As all EMAs are in right order as of now, any strong move up will likely lead to continuation of the rally that peaked in December. From that higher-timeframe perspective we would indeed be at the first bear trap here before the actual global rally takes place, which we are all waiting for more or less patiently.

Either way, things will get interesting in the coming days and weeks. While I maintain my bullish perspective on the crypto markets, the traditional market crisis will certainly lead to a hefty increase in volume and volatility, so brace yourselves and expect the unexpected.

Stay safe out there,

CY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Turn of the Tide

So I have returned from my spiritual quest. Time is short, yet many things are left undone.
Instructions have been given to me which I am decoding to my best knowledge at this time,
to pass it on to the fellows that recognize the truth inherent in this human experience.

This post is about the change that is about to occur on a global scale in the very foreseeable future. Many do not yet know what is coming, and it is supposed to be like that. Yet it does not change the fact that we are in a turbulent phase of existence which will fully unfold in months and years to come.

“A great storm is coming, but the tide has turned.”
J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
“It is not our part to master all the tides of the world, but to do what is in us for the succour of those years wherein we are set, uprooting the evil in the fields that we know, so that those who live after may have clean earth to till. What weather they shall have is not ours to rule.”
J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
This is the account of the information I have gathered in years of research, meditation and journeys into the invisible world of consciousness. I do not claim to know all there is, which would be a foolish venture, nor can I predict the future, this is not about that. This is purely about the accumulated indications which imply that a storm is coming, and we need to brace ourselves, because due to the nature of things, the storm is unavoidable. The question is not whether or not the storm is arriving in our lifetime, the only question that matters is in which direction will we use the new energy to unfold. I have no interest in sharing the source of knowledge at this stage, but there will be more chapters in the future. The transition and calibration of the information that has been passed on to me and which I trust to a fundamental degree is somewhat tough to manage, but i give my best in order to provide information that might be crucial in the coming years, independent from whether you are ready, open or willing to accept these developments.

I will now share some views about Life and the way I understand it, which I feel is urgent at this point in time to share, no matter the consequences and implications. This is my subjective understanding of life accumulated through decades of experience. If you find yourself in this, chances are we are on the right track. If you do not find yourself in these words, you probably have work to do. Either that, or my accounting is wrong, which I doubt as confirmations have been received on infinite occasions. I will speak openly now.

The World that we know

We have all been spawned into a world which is best described as duality. Everything we see, feel and witness is an expression of that duality, which is basically a pendulum or spectrum of energy. Both darkness and light are possible, and so it is with everything in life. There is the bad, and the good, the bright and the dark, the warm and the cold. Duality, however is not our natural habitat.
We come from a different place, but at this stage are reincarnated into this plane of existence to fulfil our task that has been given to us in mutual agreement between ourselves and the source.

If this view disturbs you, brace yourselves.

No matter if you believe you are coming from the source or not, we cannot deny we live in a world that is not like it appears to be. We all felt from the very beginning that there is something weird about this existence and life as it should be. It is necessary at this stage to share information in order to path a way into the depth of existence. I have never in such detail described my understanding of what is going on, but I feel the necessity and can no longer withdraw myself from the responsiblity that I have agreed upon. Take it as you will, know that I am taking a risk here. There are entities in this plane that have a fundamental interest in you not knowing these things, as it would shatter the illusion they have created to trap us into the modern slavery which we call life today. The Matrix is real, and it is partially your responsibility to recognize it, and draw the appropiate conclusions from the implications taken from such scenario. You are only partially responsible, because you have agreed to come here without knowing where you come from. The accumulated experiences of your soul have been stored in a place that is not accessible without spiritual advancement, which is only possible for a fraction of beings on Earth at this time, but can be achieved by everyone.

Life is about so much more than we know. The example that comes to my mind is the analogy of the iceberg. It is estimated that about 90% of an iceberg is underwater. Which means that when you stand on such iceberg, you may access that which is visible like the surface, but in contrast have a hard time witnessing the depths of the iceberg. It is in the hidden shade underwater and one has to actually dive down to fully grasp the iceberg in it’s wholeness.
ice1
This is directly in correlation with the human ability to use only about 10% of the brain’s actual capability, which in turn means that there is about 90% of brain capability hidden to be unlocked. It is in the hidden shade, stored deep in the subconsciousness which you only have partial access to, until you finally decide to further advance into the depths of your being. As with the iceberg, it is necessary to dive into the depths to understand what it is all about. We all have a mission here and it is our assignment to find out what this mission is to be able to live this life fully.

You can resist it, but eventually you will always come back to the question that seems to be fundamental in understanding this experience: What is life about?

Yet, although the question has been around since the very beginning, no universal accepted answer has been found and agreed upon. It seems crucial that we need to first understand our very own subjective answer to this question. If we do not have such an answer to that question at this time, while the clock of life is continously ticking along, it might be time to explore this thought a little more. Because if we do not have such answer to that question, how will we be ever able to live our life in a way that is fulfilled and whole, in alignment with everything there is? Where is happiness coming from, when we do not understand the basic fundamentals of life itself? How can we build a house the ground if we do not understand how the ground is working, on which laws it operates and how to construct a complex structure on top of it without jeopardizing the final outcome?

We have work to do. Yet many are doubting and generally resisting against the idea of a higher, more purposefull existence. That there is actually way more than we know about. We, as a collective, have not yet grasped or barely scratched the surface of what is possible, because we are still operating from a state of denial when it comes to these things. There is abundance to explore and i encourage you to do exactly that: to explore that which you do not yet know. For that it is necessary to open your mind to concepts that you previously have not considered and evaluate it subjectively with your own experiences accumulated in your lifetime. We can decide to stay blind to these things, but the truth will always prevail.

So what is the truth? First of all, “The Truth” is subjective, based on our past experiences and very individual perspective on life. It also implies that the Truth is something that you need to figure out yourself, because only you are capable of doing so. There is a way to merge these individual Truths into a collective Truth in the future, but this is not yet the time to talk about these things.

We are here, because we agreed upon it prior to this existence.

Chances are that you have come here voluntarily by an universal agreement for a specific mission that only you can accomplish. This is what is meant when it is being said that everyone is special. You, with all your faults and blessings, have special abilities that only you possess in your very individual and complex way of being – and it is necessary to both embrace and understand these special abilities of yours, and the reason you came here in the first place.

Shuttering? Stay with me.

This ability of yours that you either unlock or deny, will fundamentally change this world in your lifetime to extraordinary degrees.

That which we currently see and understand about life, the way it is going and where it is heading will be completely altered in the years to come. The system will not survive the shift, and it is about us to shape the future of this planet and to unify our individual energies into the collective grid.
No matter what you believe you are here for, if you dismiss these concepts, you likely suffer to a large degree in your life right now. Because it is an inner current that is driving you to these things of depth which you cannot deny infinitely. The Force is real and it is up to us to embrace it. The only way to embrace it is to invest into it energetically. We will come to that soon.

The critical mass is about to be triggered

There is much talk about the critical mass that needs to be triggered.
Obviously due to us being actively involed in this Cryptosphere we mostly think about it in terms of massive adoption, but actually it is an analogy for the whole shift that is taking place right now. Surely, if we trigger the critical mass, which is said to be about 3% of the population it will manifest in Crypto as shooting prices and global FOMO, but this is only a subdiary of what is actually taking place:

The shift in energy due to astromical changes in the Grid of the Earth as predicated by many civilizations, predominantly the Mayans in the most accurate calendar ever created, is having huge implications on all beings on this planet at this time. Due to the global media there is a suspicious sphere about these Higher Timeframe happenings. But we already know that the media does not work in our interest at all, quite the opposite, so I encourage you to go your own way of exploring these things that clearly reside in the unconventional spheres when viewed from a social perspective. Talking openly about spirituality is a no-go in our such modern civilization.
The problem is not that there are entities that don’t want you to know these things, but that most sheeples of society dimiss the spiritual idea completely, not based on own experiences, but because of ignorance, and people tend to be afraid to speak about these things to avoid getting ridiculed, which needs to stop.

We are operating from a Low Timeframe

Life is a blink in existence. Compared to the movements of planets, and cycles in nature which outspans our definition of time by far, we must assume that there are both Lower and Higher Timeframes from which we are largely seperated. Yet they exist, and our non-understanding of these other Timeframes is giving us a hard time living in this plane.

From my point of understanding we are in the transition. Most people believe the Mayans predicted the end of the world in 2012. Because nothing was happening the idea that the Mayans knew anything at all was widely dismissed, which is hilariously ludicrous. What the Mayans predicted was not the end of the world, but the end of the world as we know it. The end of a thousands year cycle and the beginning of a new age, with the transitioning beginning after 2012. There are various records of what cycles exactly end, as it seems that multiple cycles happen to end at the same point in time, coming from various Higher Timeframes, making the impact even more significant and powerful.

It is not important that you believe it right now, it is only important that you hear about it.
Just listen.

IF this is true, it has major implications on our lives. Like in a chart, you would like to see support in Higher Timeframes before entering a trade in Lower Timeframes, as it gives you an appropiate Risk/Reward Ratio, which means that the Investment you make will likely generate a positive result while minimizing the risk of failure. If we manage to accept that there are Higher Timeframes to this life, we inevitably must come to the conclusion that we are at the dawn of times, where huge changes are about to occur, while we are yet unprepared for the vastness of the experiences to come.

This is no problem as such, as Higher Timeframes have a different definition of time, which can be best described as patience from our perspective. The Shift must not take place in a single day, it is rather a transition through many years and decades, but the time is now, and we are all here to witness, and are asked to adapt.

We have a decision to make.

All of us, no matter how different we perceive to be, have agreed upon a universal responsibility that we cannot remember fully while being here. It is time to tap into that and explore everything that has been hidden from us. In the context of the Major Change happening right now at this time, it makes sense that with every individual having the guts and capabilities (we all have that and are able) breaking that barrier to the hidden, will path the way for fellows to follow. It is showing the way by example, which we all are responsible for if we realize it or not. We have a tremendous actual responsibility, yet we as a collective have mastered ignorance and excel in hiding everything under a huge pile of nonsense while maintaining specifically crafted ways of thinking that do not allow to access the outer boundaries of this existence. You have a decision to make, just as me and everyone else being here at this time.

You can resist the change that is inevitably occuring, and you will reap which you have sought.
You can support the change that is coming to us, and you will reap which you have sought.

The outcome seems to be the same, but there is a distinctive difference in that equation.
Your intent in combination with your focus shape the world as you perceive it, which is a subjective reality. If the trend reversal on that Higher Spiritual Timeframe is successful we will enter an age in which the subjective realities merge together to form a universal reality which we all share and contribute to. Which is obviously only possible if the critical mass is triggered to begin with, and mastered when the whole collective is ready to embrace this new way of experience.
Yet nothing is hidden in the universe, and there is a perfect accounting system inherent in this experience. Nothing you do will be forgotten, and you will always reap which you have sought, in this life or the next. Thus the only thing that matters in this equation is your intent and your capability to love. Wait Love? Such a controversial topic, so widely avoided all over the world.
We somehow feel disconnected and guilty about not feeling the love that we should naturally feel, and much evil is the result of this erring.

Yet Love is where all of this unfolds, and the capability to tap into that energy is the gateway to the hidden. So is stillness. So is sound.

If you decide to support the change, it is time for a change. Indeed it is time to take the time and tackle the things that are left undone. We must understand that the energies of this planet are changing at a rapid pace and we need to keep up energetically to be in tune with that. If we are able to tune in, we will experience life as effortless. All will be provided, in direct correlation with the trust you are able to have into the source that creates all things. I firmly believe that we are at the brink of time and every each and every one of us has a significant and powerful impact to make. For the first time in eons humanity has the chance to evolve energetically and spiritually which will alter this whole experience in extraordinary ways. The shift is so vast that words are no help here. With any One breaking the barrier, it makes it easier for those who intend the same. We are literally helping each other evolve by evolving ourselves. This is so powerful.

I firmly believe that many are Sleepers, waiting for something to occur. Especially in Crypto I believe we have many of the brightest and also spiritual beings around.
We all are waiting for something to happen, something extraordinarily shocking from our traditional perspective of life. Something that shutters our minds. And many are aware and can confirm that they are ready for it, although nobody can really express what exactly it will be like. Others are sleeping deeply, and they will have a rather unpleasant and shocking awakening, but it is not to be avoided. Eventually all will be good.

I want you to tap into that, because it is fundamentally important from a universal perspective.
There is nothing specific you must do to signal your support in that matter, all that you must do is to decide. The source will respond, if you make sure to interpret the signs and maintain your trust no matter the circumstances. We all have to learn here and can only make it easier for others to access what we have accumulated in our experiences, but everyone has to experience it themselves.

If you do not believe in these kinds of things, stay sleepy. All will be revealed in due time, and it is your conscious decision to make and your fruits to harvest. Well it kinda is a trap, because if you read until here, while I ask you for a conscious decision whether to support or not support this change, you have no way of deciding unconsciously here. You might ignore the question, but your answer is already revealed in yourself.

We must tap into that idea, and stop seeing ourselves so seperated from everyone else and finally release the boundaries of conventional thinking. Mind forms matter, and Thoughts are a way of communication and manifestation. We are all in this together, we just pretend to be alone. But eventually we must come to the conclusion that there is so much we do not know, and exploring that is the only way to achieve fulfillment in life – for all of us.

Love and Passion are great ways to tap into that. Observation is the main tool to understand. Patience is an energetic investment in that which you need is being provided. The Force is the energetic magnetic field surrounding us and our planet that you can tap into to communicate and manifest. Meditation is the means to generate energy that then can be used to transform, manifest or further understanding. Trust is the support that you build in order to receive. You must support the Force so it can provide what you desire from your heart. This is learning in an environment which is largely invisible to perception, as you are mostly operating based on feeling and intuition, which offer no proof in the logical world we live in. It is something that you can explore without anyone knowing it, in stillness while the learning curve gets parabolic after several weeks of investing energy into that spiritual side of life. There is nothing to lose for anybody here, but much to gain no matter if it is something you have or have not previously considered. If there is only one piece of advice I would like to remember for my next lifetime, it is this: Meditate. From there all will be revealed, if you keep being dedicated and patient although nothing happens first. Have trust. See it as an experiment to explore something you did not know about, like a child being naturally curious.
By tapping into that, which is the source of your being, which is connected with the source of everything, a whole new world will be shown to you that you have previously not engaged in, not even scratched on the surface, and it is so worth it. The way I understand it is that there is a major resistance that needs to be broken initially, which has largely to do with the Ego in control of our mind and trying to prevent us from tapping into that. Go beyond it and understanding is yours.

This is a both an introductionary post for what comes in the future and a measurement of how discussed information is being processed in order to see where we currently are in the course if things. I encourage discussions and input of any kind. If you have something to say about what has been talked about here, feel free to do so.

May the Force be with you,

CY

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The Dark Night Before Dawn

You see, I get it. We had this amazing time in December when everything went parabolic and the media got all crazy about it. It was a time of celebration with your fellow crypto folks, plans emerged what you are gonna do with the profits of yours. It looked like we will go up infinitly. Then the dip.

Since peak we are now down about 70%. Many got triggered by the Media and ended up buying high (take that as a lesson by the way, the Media does not work in your interest, but solely in their own), other’s were fortunate enough to buy earlier, so technically are not holding a losing position. However no matter where you are coming from, we have something that unites us all: We are in the game. And while the world economy gets a first glimpse of what the eventual meltdown will look like, we are still here. Yes, it is a temporary drawdown, but the single most important thing that many seem to oversee today is that we have a foot in the door, while the majority of the world’s population have both no clue and no plan. This is because we as humans are so distracted that we barely see what is really going on. The bubble is here, but it is not Crypto, it is the traditional fiat markets and the debt-based financial system that we currently entertain, which cannot be sustained for much longer. Please feel free to read my articles as I went more elaborately into that topic in the past. The energy is shifting, and humanity is slowly waking up. The thing with truth is, as soon as you understand it, there is no way of going back. You cannot unsee what you have seen. We therefore must assume that the number of awake humans will increase in the future until the critical mass is triggered, which will lead to a long-overdue global revolution. I am not solely talking finance here, I am talking about a spiritual revolution that is coming at us at a rapid pace. While that energy is increasing, every individual has choices. You can either go with the flow, or keep up the ignorance currently entertained by the majority of population. That is a topic that will be covered more in the coming months as this becomes more evidence in the real world. For now I wanna talk about the dip, and put out some thoughts about it from my very subjective perspective. Only take what you need, leave the rest.

You see, money is just a fraction of the experience we call life, and it is not the most important one either. I previously made some general statements about having wealth does not make you a happy and fulfilled person, and it is true.

I feel I can comfortably talk about that, because I have experienced both. Not too many years ago I walked through the grocery store with a calculator and could only afford food for my cat, but not myself. I know pretty well what poverty feels like, but on the bright side of things it made me go all-in in Crypto. It was simply my rescue boat.

Now due to me having experienced both extremes, I can tell that money is only a problem until you have more than you need to cover your expenses. Everything above is a bonus, but it will not significantly alter your life experience. It is nice to be free of debts and monetary problems, but life is about so much more than that. And it is only when you have more than enough when you will realize that.

We need corrections for a healthy trend, and I consider this statement absolutely true. Without any pullbacks, this crypto thing would be unstable and uncertain. Only the consolidations will bring the support that we need for a stable trend up, and you will be grateful for these dips in the future. However I feel the emotional and mental struggles in realizing that a dip is actually a positive thing. After all, we are losing money in this period. But it is only temporary.

We are in such a fantastic and exciting time of humanity, and we have the chance to witness and even participate in the biggest transfer of wealth that ever happened on this planet. It is still in early development, but inevitable, at least in my perception of things.
I am pretty confident in five years from here you will not even recall this particular dip. That is the peculiar things with dips, it is only intense when you are right in it, but quickly forgotten after. Thus the most important thing is not that the dip is here, but that you learn something from it. It may be an adjustment of your strategy, or gaining emotional strength that you have gained by holding through the storm. I have experienced many 90% dips, and I am still holding around. This is either because I am utterly retarded, or because I understand that the dips is not what matters. What really matters is what price you bought at, and how much you are willing to take until you give up.

I get it, this is a dark night for many, especially those who entered in the last months hoping for getting rich quick. This is usually not how this is going. In order to reap the benefits of your actions, you need to invest. I am not solely talking about financial investment, but constant investment of time, energy and willpower to make this happen, so you realize the reward is just in comparison the investment you made. The willpower needed to endure the dark nights will give you the power to handle the wealth later on. It is only then when you feel you have earned it, that you will attract that which you sought. Getting rich quickly cannot work in the same manner as putting extensive energy into something only to see it bloom in some years from here. Getting rich quickly will likely make you lose your wealth quickly as well. The pain and negative emotions on the path of reaching financial independence is what makes it worth it, and will enable you to keep the actual wealth you have earned in the future. It makes you mentally and emotionally strong, and this is not a bad thing. The emotions that you observe in dips like that is necessary for your future growth. Welcome it. Embrace it. Observing and conquering your emotions will make you a stronger being one step at a time.

No matter if you are holding a massive losing position, or just suffer from the emotional difficulties of holding in a dip: You are going to be alright, you get me? Everything is temporary, so is this. The only important thing to learn here is that you are able to survive this, both financially and emotionally. You are way stronger than you think.
I know that because I have experienced so many dark nights in my life that I stopped counting. Eventually everything is always going to be alright, know that and operate from the knowledge that all things change.

The only constant in this equation is you. You are the ship in the ocean of life, and yourself is the only thing you can steer. You are the captain of your ship. You cannot control how the weather will be, or how rough the sea will treat you. The only thing you are capable of controlling is that ship of yours that only you know how to steer. When the winds are tough and the sky is dark, you can only take in your sail and patiently wait for the storm to be over. However if you stubbornly set your sails, the storm will take you down without mercy. Life is as such. When rough times are here, it is too late to change it. The only thing you can ensure is that you have the strength and willpower to wait until the weather clears up, and the trust and knowing that there will be brighter days eventually.

Let’s get to some practical things you can do while the dip lasts:

o If you trusted your money with some fundamentally strong projects, have faith.
o Observe your emotions, feel how they want to trigger you to make bad decisions at the worst possible time. Just observe, but don’t act on it, so you will learn that emotions can be controlled. Otherwise the market will teach you sooner or later.
o Have a look at the BTC chart of the past. Analyze, see differences and similarities, understand how this market is moving.
o It may be a good time to reconsider your portfolio, or your portfolio-strategy. The flight to quality will inevitably come.
o If you cannot handle the emotions but want to go through with your strategy, turn off your computer. It is as simple as that and probably the most valuable recommendation I can give. Countless times I have closed my laptop because I knew it would trigger negative emotions looking at my portfolio, which in turn might trigger bad, unconscious decisions. Go out for a walk in nature. Read a book. Have some fun.
o Use the time at your disposal to research. Research projects, coins, fundamentals, the state of the world. Learn something while you wait for the market to turn.
o Meditate. It will calm your mind and decreases the power of emotions on your decisions. I consider Meditation to be the most valuable investment in life.

And remember, everything will be alright. In some weeks from here you will be looking back and barely remember the pain you went through. But what you have gained will stick with you for the rest of your life.

All the best and much strength, I know you can do it. Have faith,
CY