Current State of Markets

Hi there folks,

I read an interesting article on Coindesk.com, talking about whether this crypto rally is a bubble or not.For sure an interesting read, I will quote along the article but feel free to have a full read:

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-asset-class-finally-coming/

“Interestingly enough, this [total] market cap surpassed $90bn earlier this week, representing a year-to-date (YTD) gain of more than 400% from the value of $17.7bn at the start of the year, according to CoinMarketCap data, with a YTD gain for more than 350%

Alternative asset protocols have experienced even stronger gains so far this year, as these currencies draw robust inflows.

While some analysts warned that cryptos may have entered bubble territory, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of leveraged digital currency platform BitMEX, emphasized that these assets could experience further inflows now that wealthy individuals have started looking.

“We are finally at the point where wealthy individuals, those with [more than] $1 million of liquid assets, are considering whether to allocate a very small portion of their net worth into digital assets,” he said. “If this happens on even a small scale, the value of the entire industry will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in short order.”

The broader cryptocurrency space may be well-positioned to draw additional inflows, due to the constant creation of new alternative asset protocols and the ever-changing range of value propositions they provide.

Tim Enneking, chairman of Crypto Asset Management, commented on this development:

“The growth of alts has changed [cryptocurrencies] from a one-trick pony to a range of investments in which one can construct a portfolio.”

And its true. Have you recently considered to take any outside money into the cryptospace to invest in one of those many opportunities popping up every day? Or even already invested another great amount because you feel this thing is close to getting really started? I know many people who just recently bought Bitcoins to invest in the altmarkets. Likelihood is, when you do it, others do it too. imagine just a little fraction of the global population has or is in the process of purchasing Bitcoins, not as for the reason to speculate with BTC, but to forward it to an alt exchange to buy some ETC, XRP, DGB, and what not.

What a massive inflow of capital into small but promising projects. There is not much innovation anymore in Bitcoin and people figure that. The real shiny ones are Altcoins who are capable of changing the face of money economy and IT. And in all honestly, out there are more profitable picks than you can possibly take. Research is key here, distinguish the dirt from quality, accumulate quality coins.

I know the voices on twitter and news are talking about the end of the rally. I believe this rally has not taken off yet and will do so with the momentum currently available. IMHO the #goldenage is unstoppable at this point. The only reason BTC can hold current level despite blocksize debate going on for years now is that fresh entrants come into the game and bring fresh capital to be distributed in many different alts.

Marketcaps of Altcoins will thus further accelerate until it spikes and becomes a runaway bull trend. This pattern will unfold this year and will leverage all coins to a way higher price plateau, that high that it is unlikely we will ever see a retest at this range ever again. That means if you are not positioned when this rapid moves happen, you missed the rally of a lifetime. Talking to shortterm traders here, you will be burned along the way as fuel for the accelerating price increase. We need to push out last weak hands before being able to spike seriously. Sellers and bears must be completely wiped out in order for the goldenage spike to begin.

Shorters, top sellers, margin traders, most of the get wiped out during that process and will take the massive loss and buy back with the remaining capital way higher during the fomo spike. and that then is REAL fomo, not the kindergarten rallies we see here at the bottom still. From purely technical aspects, when bears get extinct, we see insane prices increases going on for days, even weeks in a row before retesting.

ETC example why market is in a bear trap.png

Lets examine that on the chart of ETC which is showing exactly what is going on in the correction and the entire market. We have a classic double checkmate situation here. We got both a triggered bear reversal and bull reversal bar. That means, both bulls and bears are trapped between red and green line. stop levels for their positions is at dark red, either side.

What else is that when not a disagreement of traders debating whether or not the current altcoin rally is true? There are many different opinions in the market, but the truth is, nobody knows how this story ends. Everybody trying to assess using their very best knowledge which is the accumulation of experiences of a lifetime.

So both the bull and bear camps have positioned themselves for the showdown. both signals are valid, the bear reversal is strong and on high volume, however little tail on bottom, indicating bulls already bought into the close of the bar. The bear reversal got triggered on the very next bar, which means sellers are officially in the market now, and try to add on positions when the price is rising a bit. Those bears speculating on a “bubble” think prices might return to lower prices, so they can accumulate more there. However the next bar dumped deep, right into previous High support, but immediately reversed to the upside and closed as a strong bull reversal. This entry bar got triggered at the very next bar, which means buyers have found the way into the market again.

So checkmate, the next move decides the fortune of that rally. Who’s camp get stopped out first while have a bad bad time. Both dark red lines are in the market, clearly visible for everyone, which means that there will be shorters below, and buyers above.

So wait, we have to equal signals, how do we distinguish the good from the bad move?

As we have two signals we will look more into price action, which is the analysis of bar to bar, one after another, to get a feeling for the overall market. Combine that with a sense of empathy and technical analysis and you have an impressive skillset in your hands. Feeling is a substantial part of my analysis. I am one of the rare people in this world who have the joy to spend such insane amount of hours in this space, i follow all charts without any breaks for three years. It is a story that you follow, a little word every day until you can read a whole chapter, the whole book.

Here again the picture so we dont have to scroll up.

ETC example why market is in a bear trap

Lets compare the two signals. Because we want to analyze a potential edge here which gives us an indication of what is more likely to happen. The bear reversal was strong, on high volume, but had a little tail on bottom. The bull reversal was also a strong breakout, but the body is slightly bigger than that of the bear bar, also it has no tail on top at all. So to me, the bull signal is slightly stronger.  But there are more factors:

First off all the bull momentum is way stronger as we had several breakouts during last days, first small ones, then getting bigger any time. It is hard to stop a bull trend when it has finally manifested in the market for everybody to see. Likely scenario, which would be my best guess in that situation, is that bulls will be slowly taking over control, especially with rising BTC again, which drags the USD value of alts with it. That means prices will slowly close higher until many of the positioned bears will give up on their positions which leads to a chain reaction and eventually strong up spike.

Also it can be possible we see another retest of support, trying to push out more weak hand bulls who are tempted to cut losses. For both camps, both bull and bear, its a test of belief. Are they panic-closing their positions when they are in red (shorters) or are they rather relaxed because they know the upside momentum is way stronger and buy support is thick below, as we have established a healthy uptrend on daily (holders)?

Well how the situation continues remains to be seen, exciting times for sure. Upside potential for all alts (this ETC chart is a reference to most of the altcoins, as the market feeling is the same) is huge. When we reach either side of the dark red stop loss levels, the things become interesting. For now from my side, thumbs up, market is in good condition, mostly have retested previous Highs in daily. Trend is intact, I expect acceleration of trend in the next days and weeks as soon as Alts have recovered from the “surprising” BTC drop.

total mkt cap zoom 1m.png

Different chart, same situation. This is Total Market Cap. Sellers and Buyers in squeeze zone, the next High decides the fate of the next days and weeks. Still time to do a lot of research about promising coins! Take some hours of time and really scan every market you can find, polo, bittrex, bitcoinwisdom, whatever. Look for undervalued coins with promising charts, collect these in a list. Then research every coin you have found and disregard if trash, take to the next round for quality picks. Sort out so you have some solid undervalued early coins to invest in, then accumulate. Time is still early, so it might be that these days and weeks are the very most important in our financial future. Refine your portfolio everyday, until the point when you are just happy with how it is, which never happens. Its a constant refinement, no static thing. But we will figure that out along the way, we have a lot of time left to speak about these things in the future.

For now keep on doing what you do, so will I. This week will be pretty exciting as some move has to occur. So all the best, speak to ya again soon,

yodatransparent

The End of BTC Dominance

Dear loyal readers,

every day its a pleasure to wake up and dive into crypto, no surprise with such a great community. Today I want to elaborate on the end of BTC dominance due to various reasons. For the analysis I used all charts on blockchain.info, which is a great reference to get an overview over the overall state of the market. So lets go:

Lets start with the obvious: Blocks are full to an extend that transactions no longer will be processed except if you include a high fee. Waited for a transaction for five days, included $70 fees, because I needed it to be quick. The situation is unbearable, and prices cant maintain the current altitude without a solution. Have a look at this chart:

Average Block Size.png

It becomes evident when seeing it like that, Blocks are more than full, the natural limit of the blockchain is reached. There is two options how to go on:

1) Miners agree on a solution, blocksize increase ASAP
2) BTC price will collapse

The decisive point is now until July 2017. If not solution is to be found, BTC price of > $1700 is not justified, given altcoins exist providing more value in this regard. IMO current price of BTC is unsustainable given the current circumstancs. But lets go over more charts:

number of unique addresses.png

Unique addresses accelerating, will spike soonish if trend continues (crypto trend unstoppable at this stage IMO). That means we have spiking interest in crypto, for which BTC is the foundation. Rising Interest vs Blocksize Limit Situation here.

segwit.png
However when it come to solutions, we are not even close to anything. The chart above is just the example of Segwit support, which has a hard time keeping a level of moren than 30% support. Problems are severe right now, but solution is not in sight.
miners revenue.png

Mining however are doing great! Sure they do, after all who profits from rising fees in transactions… So for miners the current situation is very profitable. Rising Interest, but limit slots per block for transactions, thus the TX with the highest fee will be accepted only. Such profits. But is the fee rising actually?

total transaction fees.png

Oh, but yes! BTC fee are spiking, on the way to a new All Time High. which in this case is not a buy, but a strong sell. Network remains with many limitations, getting slower every day, but costs for TX increase at the same time. However this chart is nothing compared to the next, as BTC prices may be confusing. This will be pretty clear:

total transaction fees usd.png
Oops. fees in USD way above ATH, accelerating, spiking, going parabolic. Looking at these charts, everybody is able to tell that BTC has a big big problem coming up soon.

mempool transaction count.png

Mempool increasing every day, having more unconfirmed transactions in the pool than any time before. That means transactions are stacking up in the blockchain, but get not processed as highest fee TX will be included in blocks. Thus transactions with small fee may take weeks to arrive at the destination. But lets have a look at the total market cap:

global charts total mktcap.png

Total market cap spiking, showing no signs of reversal. High volume on this upmove, thus likely more to follow. Money is flowing into crypto at an unseen rate, and is likely to increase in the next weeks, months and years. Unstoppable at this point.

btc percentage BTC.png

BTC percentage in the overall market cap is decreasing rapidly, money flowing into alts at insane rate. If there is no quick solution, other coins will take over BTC’s leading position. All alts will have a golden time. Thus this still is the beginning in terms of #GoldenAge, as the BTC crash is needed for Alts to completely leave current range. Its like 2011 all over again.

total mktcap excl btc.png

Total Market Cap excluding BTC is spiking, further stating the obvious: The Altmarket is unstoppable at this time, massive money flowing in. Every day now, BTC loses its dominance, while Alts take more control. This will accelerate without a quick solution.

Lets have a closer look at the most dominant Altcoins, namely ETH, XRP, LTC, DASH, as the MKTCAP charts have been provided by coinmarketcap.com. thanks for that.

MKTCAP XRP.png

Well, not much to be said about XRP. Everyone who read my articles and followed me closely the last five weeks is balls deep in XRP for a move beyond $1. Massive money is flowing into XRP, and will likely accelerate. As I tweeted earlier; If Banks START using Ripple this year, this is the beginning, not the end of the rally. hodl for life here, your future self will thank you.

MKTCAP ETH.png
After XRP and STR had some massive rally and shows signs of corretions, ETH is probably very willing and able to do the same. Expecting a retest of previous MKTCAP Highs, where it will likely reverse and spike beyond ATH. From the looks of the chart, there might be some more days of consolidation, but buyers should increasingly find their way into ETH soonish, which will lead to profit taking in XRP and flows into ETH/ETC and coins based on Ethereum code.

MKTCAP XRP, ETH.png
Comparing both we clearly see XRP taking over control, however ETH will not give its rank up without a proper fight. I except a honest race between those two, XRP now taking the lead. When it will correct, ETH will spike to keep up. So positioning early in ETH pairs is a wise move.

MKTCAP LTC.png

LTC is still early in this regard. Had a breakout of the channel on high volume, but currently retesting, also waiting for XRP finishing its move. Entries are triggered, expecting Higher Highs, Higher Lows in the future as well as acceleration. Retest of previous support is expected, thus some more days patience until the small brother will lift off, with a erious attempt to take over control the majority of BTCs marketcap. After all, Segwit got activated, LN. In short. LTC is BTC in 2011. Please have a look at the All Time Chart BTC again to get a picture where we currently are in the LTC narrative.

MKTCAP DASH.png

DASH also very early. had a spike above ATH, now correcting and retesting previous buy support levels. Does not matter by the way if the chart I analyse is MarketCap or Price/BTC. Eventually all charts work the same way, even in Nature. Laws of chart are fundamentally included in this life experience. Chart anything you like, try to apply TA, watch magic unfold. How does it work? I dont know, but it works. Experiment with it!

So lets come to a conclusion:esitamed usd transaction value.png

Transaction Value is spiking, Unique addresses spiking, MKTCAP spiking. At the same time, number of Unconfirmed Transactions spiking, Cost per Transaction spiking, but no solution in sight. The era of BTC is coming to an end. Position into alts before its too late. Once the crash comes it will be devastating, and Alts will be the winner. Buy all promising projects early in anticipation, also SmallCaps which will may generate 1000x+ ROI if bought very low, hold very long. Make the best out of this opportunity, always be one step ahead. Hold your bags, survive all the dips, even if its going down 40 or 50% on a day. It will come back. Please dont be tempted to sell the tops and rebuy lower, only if you REALLY know what you do. If you trade less than a year i crypto, just hold your stuff.

Normally last Highs will be retested after a pump, thats TA law. Thus traders try to sell the top when its far away from breakout point, and try to rebuy lower at last High. Until that very day, when the buy support is so strong that the last High will not even remotely be tested, and leaves a big gap in the chart, which is a signs of bullish strength. All will need to buy back in panic way higher than they originally sold. This will lead to two things:

1) a MASSIVE fomo leg up, leaving behind all previous Highs for never to return.
2) Traders who got trapped in this trade and rebought higher will likely hold from now on. Which means that they will no longer sell the tops, which is decreases resistance and will lead to Higher Prices in the future, more quickly, more easily, more accelerating.

If you still sell the tops and it works, fine. Please dont be left behind. If you start holding now, expontential profits will await you this year. If you continue, I give you a 90% chance you will be left behind at some stage of the rally, missing 90% of the entire move.
Gentlemen, please place your bets.

Good luck riding this wave, for the #GoldenAge is near, and will finally kickoff when BTC starts to collapse. Be prepared in advance. Support your fellow traders to dont panic sell the dip, stay strong, give each other support and help, stay disciplined. And I do not worry about your financial future in 2-3 years from now, for life.

All the best, kindest greetings to people all over the world who were at the right time, at the right place, doing the right thing. Its wonderful to have you all here and I love every day spending with you folks, witnessing history of the biggest bubble of mankind.

Much success, and stay tuned,yodatransparent.png

Announcement: Round #2

Gentlemen,

over the weekend we needed to close the subscriptions due to insane traffic and interest. After some preparations and improvement, I am happy to announce round #2 of subscriptions for Padawan and Jedi levels will be opened in the late evening hours Europe Time. All information will be provided on Twitter, stay tuned!

Jedi will have 100 seats left for now. group size must be relatively small in order to work diligently, and to increase quality of service. Padawans no restriction yet.

Hope to see you on board soon!

All the best,
Cryptoyoda

come

Invitation to Yoda’s Inner Circle

My dear & loyal fellows,

it has been magic weeks since my lovely student @cryptopinoy planted the seed in my mind to share what I have learned. Since that golden day a little over three weeks now, my tweets have reached almost 3 million people all over the world. I am deeply astonished about how limitless possiblities are in those times we live in. You have seen my engage on Twitter, then creating the Hut, now we are moving to a new venture.          To everybody who has supported me along the way, I thank you very much from the bottom of my heart. I know many have made serious profit these last weeks and enjoyed our collaboration in the Hut. Today, I am pleased to invite you for the new chapter of a long story to be unfold: Yoda’s Inner Circle.

“Always pass on what you have learned” – Yoda

I like to make an analogy to the real Yoda to clarify the objective of this very next chapter. So who is Yoda?

Bildergebnis für yoda jungle

Yoda was a male member of a mysterious species, and was a revered Jedi Master who served as the Grand Master of the Jedi Order in the waning days of the Galactic Republic. After the devastating war, Yoda remained in exile for two decades. During his exile, he watched from afar as other Jedi survivors continued to operate throughout the galaxy.

In the 2nd movie, Luke Skywalker seeks Yoga to start his apprenticeship, to become a Jedi Master himself. Yoda at first, however, is reluctant to teach Luke as “this boy has no patience, i can’t teach him”. As the story unfolds, Yoda takes Luke to the Dagobah Jungle for valuable lessons…

jungle.jpg

… in face of the dangerous jungle Yoda guides Luke through the woods so he may learn and grow in order to teach others in the future, too.

One, there is, who has tried and failed. Yet closer has he come than any other

I personally had a hard time learning trading. It took me five years non-stop 12+ hours trading every day of the week to get here. I had no teacher, no one to ask, no one who was willing to share a professional opinion on what the heck I was doing. There was however a good thing in this: I made every mistake I could possibly make. Lost a ton of money in my early career too. This was all necessary for me to evolve as a trader, to build the mindset that makes one successful in this business. Trading is not about technical analysis or chart patterns, it is a game of mindsets. If you excell in technical analysis but have no right mindset, there is no gain. If you excell in mindset, but poor in analysis, there is no limit. I want to start this new venture and invite you all in.

The Inner Circle ain’t my group. It is a collaboration of skilled and dedicated crypto traders, willing to work diligently on the realization of both quality mindset and analysis capability in a structured and guided environment – entirely without the usual daily noise of crypto trading.

The focus in the Inner Circle will be teaching and improving both mindset and skills & optimized exchange of significant information, while being much more structured and organized, so we can all work diligently and grow together as a collective. It is my priority to increase the quality that has unfortauntely declined since we broke 500+ members in the Hut, when it became more of a trollbox than effective trading group. We will go back to the roots of quality entries, valueable discussions, advanced analysis, and on top we will create opportunities to learn and grow. There will be all kinds of lessons, quality content and personal advice on both strategy and portfolios, channels for coin requests and room for elaborating on further profitable activities by the Inner Circle shared by its members. We want to keep it tidy so we can work effectively. The rest we will figure out along the way.

Always two, there are. No more, no less. A master and an apprentice.

I have never chosen the name master. its like sensei. if you get called that, no matter if you are or not, it is your duty to share what you have learned. It is planting a seed in minds, in hope they will one day return the favor by planting a good seed in someone else too.

Three years have gone by since I found the way into the crypto wonderland, and its honestly the best things that happened in my life until now. I know many of you feel like this, too. What was always missing is a clean way to exchange with other crypto enthusiast in a non-noisy but structured way. Hence I created this thing together with the great team I have the honour to work with.

I cannot make the promise I will not make mistakes. There will be mistakes on the way. But as I did almost all wrong before, the rate of success now is very high. At all times I will give my very best to guide and support my fellows on the journey through the jungle of cryptocurrency, when crazy volatility and unseen situations appear. Which they will. I would like to be the lantern, who guides you to the jungle of uncertainty and emotional rollercoaster that is going to come. It is good to have fellow mates on board who may support right & wise decisions and minimize subconscious & emotional mistakes altogether.

As my energy and time is limited, quantity and quality on Twitter will decrease with time, as my main priority will be the Inner Circle, where I will spend most of my time guiding, teaching and researching for the group’s success. If you would like to embark on this journey with me and the loyal supporters, feel free to join the Inner Circle, for great things we will create.

padawab

 

Looking forward to see you all on Slack very soon! I am thrilled to get started. All the best, may the force be with you.

CryptoYoda

Join Yoda’s Inner Circle

After Yoda’s death, Luke fulfilled his master’s dying wish: to pass on what he had learned to a new generation of Jedi.

– Yoda

The Golden Age of Cryptocurrency

Dear loyal fellows,

it has been a great week, thank you very much for all the support. I feel this way is making a difference. I am busy working on closing Chapter #1, and opening Chapter #2 which will be moving to a more efficient and organized platform, creating opportunity for the whole group to grow and expand financially. The Inner Circle will be my main priority of focus in the next months. But stay tuned, will release further information later in the day.

Today I will be writing an article about the current market condition as I feel many traders are confused about the pattern change that we are witnessing currently.

For two years the given rule was when BTC rises, ALTS tend to collapse. Who ever followed during the last years and months, a 2% BTC move resulted in -25% ALTS, aka bloodbath on Polo. However that has changed to a degree that ALTS do no longer respect BTC’s up moves in the same manner. Instead, ALTS tend to hold relatively strongly against BTC spikes and reverse quickly back up after the initial excitement has settled. This shows incredible strength of ALTS, and lost of respect towards BTC. Which in turn brings us closer to the pattern of the Golden Age, which I will elaborating on in this article.

Lets first have a look at the current Total Market Capitalization. Coinmarketcap is a great source for that, I definitely suggest checking the chart regularly to get more clues about the market, especially if charts display uncertainty.

1

Both Total Market Cap and Combined Altcoin Market Cap seem to enter parabolic mode. At this point the trend is rather unstoppable, only few corrections are to be expected at that point, if at all. 2If we now include Google Trends for the word “Cryptocurrency” we see another parabolic curve:

3.png

Interest in crypto is definitely rising. As this is a collective consciousness movement, it is almost impossible to drop. Instead what everybody is waiting for (consciously or unconsciously), is to trigger the critical mass:

In social dynamics, critical mass is a sufficient number of adopters of an innovation in a social system so that the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining and creates further growth. – wiki

Although its a debated topic how much % we need to trigger that critical mass, it is clearly foreseeable that crypto will enter that stage some time in the near future, probably along with rising interest and media coverage. Once this thing gets started, it will be unstoppable. And the way I see it, we are right now in the process of leaving bottoms for good.

If we observe the market from an investors perspective, cryptocurrency is still a relatively unchartered territory. I believe in a macro scale we are still in shift Innovator Phase to Early Adopters. In honesty, if you take the global population as a whole, no one bats an eye on cryptocurrencies. It is yet an odd phenomenon, only few people will research after hearing about first, not to mention buy any. Individuals and businesses alike want to get a foot into crypto before it heads off. We already do have Early Adopters like Microsoft, IBM, Big Banks, being busy researching, experimenting, testing and expanding their blockchain products as a preparation for the Early Majority Phase. We therefore are witnessing the shift from Innovators to Early Adopters during the last bear market, which will transform into the Early Majority within the next two years.

5

There is another shift that is taking place at the same time. After three years of bear market in ALTS, we are now witnessing a historic Major Trend Reversal after retesting the breakout point of the very first rally. Which means we have a Trend Reversal in highly excellent context, Higher Highs, Higher Lows on insanely high volume. BTC’s pumps have no longterm effect on ALTS at this stage, only shortterm selloffs which will be immediately reversed as soon as things calm down.

In July last year we witnessed a test pump in almost all ALTS, which has been again retested at the breakout point. This rally we see today will leave the last years range for good, to never come back again. I am therefore not only expecting All Time Highs for almost all ALTS in the mid-term future, but I see the transformation from Disbelief to Hope happening right now. That means in regard of the entire market cycle, we are at the beginning, not at the end.

cycle

Many new traders came into the crypto space in the last year. Most have almost no experience in trading, so they grew up in a bear market / trading range, where there is the rule to buy low, sell high. However we are not in a trading range anymore, but in a bull market, where rules are differently. It is my belief that longterm hold will eventually reap the biggest profits, except you are a godlike trader and know exactly what you do. Most do not, but burn their future wealth in shortterm trades based on emotional unconscious decision-making. It is a losing game. If you have not much experience in those markets, I advise to invest into the most promosing coins (personal research and assessment necessary obviously), let the whole bull market play out, and be patient with taking profit. Just hold. Holding patiently will be winning this game in the long run, bear that in mind. There is a reason Warren Buffet has acquired insane riches in his lifetime, applying just this strategy: seeing potential, buying low & never sell.

In my personal assessment we are in the shift between Disbelief and Hope which will turn into Full Hope with more Higher Highs on daily charts. If you are here right now, you have great chances of buying into the forming trend early without your entry price ever touched again. This is a unique opportunity for all of us. We are at the right time, at the right place, doing the right thing. We got to realize that, so we can make profitable decisions for our personal investment strategy. Do your research, decide which coins you would like to hold in 5+ years when crypto is fully implemented in the world. Create a portfolio with a very longterm perspective.  This is not the time to make shortterm trades with small profits. This is the time where you ultimatively need to decide what coins you want to ride in the biggest rallies of all times. Choose wisely.

Remember BTC was created in 08/09. It is therefore almost a decade old already. The ALTCOIN market is still two or three years old on average, most coins considerably less. That means the entire market is lagging behind about five years. We are at the very beginning of the rally, comparable to BTC’s bottoms between 2011 and 2013. If you would have the chance to buy BTC below $10, would you do it? Well, many missed this opportunity, but we have a second chance right in front of our eyes. Lets take a look at some examples:

6.png

This is All Time Chart of XRP. We clearly see prices have retested support levels at breakout point, after which we have seen the first Higher High after a long time. Look at that buy volume. This is exactly what you want to see in a Major Trend Reversal at bottom.

8.png

Peercoin is one of the earliest cryptocurrencies that successfully participated in the 2013 pump along with Namecoin, Litecoin, Feathercoin and others. Look at that volume coming in as soon as the trendline got broken. This is historic value and highly significant as it indicates a Major Trend Reversal.

9.png

Last example in this regard: NXT. This is exactly what you want to see if you are waiting for a bottom to be formed. High volume on upside rallies. Interest is higher than ever and many smart investors are currently busy in accumulating as cheap as possible. NXT is a little older than a year. Imagine buying BTC in 2010 and you get a grasp of what is possible in the long run.

Most traders make the mistake to accept the current range as all there is. They completely dismiss the idea that there is unchartered territory above the current range which might lead to price increases between 100x – 1000x. For the sake of your future self, take the time and think about it. Research promosing coins with real-world adoption chances, decide on a longterm portfolio. Hold.

After all, assuming the ALT market is two – three years old in average, when comparing to BTC All Time Chart, we would be somewhere around here right now:

4Exactly. We are so early in this game that the chart we see today will not even be visible in 5+ years. Crypto is at the beginning, and you found your way into this for whatever reason. All that counts is that you are here and might witness the biggest bubble of human kind. I like to be a bit dramatic, you probably sense that. I do believe exactly that, thus I share my most honest thougt.

For those still in #disbelief about the upcoming rally who lack to see the real potential of crypto in the future, a few thoughts to think about:

The entire global financial system is a bubble without fundamentals. The system can only keep on running due to globalization which is basically expansion. This has a naturally ceiling, nothing can grow forever without retesting previous stages. We live in a world that has been built upon the idea of globalization. I am pretty sure you feel the limit of that idea in your working life too. Working more, with less income, doing tasks that you are actually not entitled to do, because the company tries to save money. There is a natural ceiling on that idea, and we are very close. Not to mention that we have a financial system that produces more debt than money needed to repay those debts. It is a vicious cycle, and there is no solution to it, except to create a new system. This is what taking place right now, the setup of a whole new system based on blockchain technology. However what happens with the debts already accumulated? It will be taken to the new system. This ultimatively means that the Crypto bubble will be the last bubble to keep the system running for as long as possible. After that there will be only three bubbles. Gold, Silver & Water. But lets hope this is still far away in the future.

The only important thing is that financial markets are at the verge of a global collapse, and the only way to avoid this is using cryptocurrencies as a hedge. When fiat can be created out of thin air by a private institution (yes, thats what the Federal Reserve is, its a private organization), FIAT is the biggest scam in human history. It is worth exactly as much as the value of the paper its printed on. It is just the people and the trust that creates the impression it has actually value. When the critical mass understands this, FIAT will be over. Crypto will be the first hedge against this collapse, together with Gold and Silver which are artificially suppressed by paper markets. Especially silver is severely undervalued when comparing the Silver/Gold ratio to historical averages, while supply is coming to an end & the whole industry is dependent on it due to silver being needed in the production of technology.

The way I see it we are about to witness the biggest wealth transfer in human history. The old system is weak and about to die, and from the ashes a new system will arise. If thats a good or bad thing is up to discussion, but there is a huge opportunity for all people on this planet to benefit from that change, it is just up to you.

So, in the long run I expect both BTC and ALTS rising parabolic at the same time. We are right in the shift of the pattern BTC up -> Alts down, to BTC up -> Alts up. It takes some time but eventually we will be there. Thus, being invested in the altmarket is such a profitable move longterm. This is what I understand when saying Golden Age of Cryptocurrency. A worldwide hype, pushing up the price of all crypto assets to an unbelievable level, with or without system collapse. Question thus only is: Will you take the opportunity or miss out? You have one shot.

You are here, so chances are good you have a plan. Stick to your plan. Think longterm. Hold.

So I would like to say a few words about this upcoming transition into Hope Phase:

When BTC confirmed the longterm uptrend in daily chart, we witnessed a lot of fake moves and traps along the way. Would you have survived those -30 % drops in just a few hours? Or would you have panic sold at $100 in hope of buying back cheaper, and wake up next morning to a 150% price increase from these levels? If so, you would likely never reached the $1090 top this way.

11

Emotional stability will be the most important personality trait in this rally. I expect INSANE volatility, all sorts of fake moves and traps. Do not be trapped out of the greatest trade of all time. Stick to your plan. HOLD.

For the sake of practicability I share my current price predictions:

LTC $100+ this year
ETC $100+ this year
XRP $1 within two years

That is without a potential system collapse. If that happens, disregard my predictions. Another thing for the $1 XRP shill. It is banks who will use this system. Banks can create money out of thin air. If they are the largest holder of XRP assets, they can pump it to insane levels using scam fiat. You think $1 is unrealistic? Please think about it again.

From the bottom of my heart, I wish you may make the right decisions. Decide on a strategy. Be patient. Dont get trapped out and left behind. HOLD, and I will not worry about your financial future five years from now. Much success and good luck. We will all need it to survive this rally in order to reap maximum profits.

goldenage

May you be blessed,

CryptoYoda

Twitter, Telegram & Sustainability

Two weeks ago, I made a Twitter account based on the suggestion of my philippine student @CryptoPinoy who thought it may be a good idea to share my trades and knowledge publicy with everyone interested in these kind of things.

Now, two weeks later, there are more than 1,200 followers and messages constantly flooding in on both Twitter and Telegram. I have been awake for six hours and wrote six hours straight since then, just answering question or giving opinion on portfolios or charts. In short, I just can’t keep anymore and need to think about ways to change in order to to be able to continue my work as in the previous weeks.

Because I went to Twitter as a service to help traders get more out of their potential by giving additional honest advice, this is still my priority. I don’t want to leave questions unanswered because they are all good and valid. So I decided to open a Telegram Group for all sorts of discussions, analysis and questions, where we can brew something together. Everybody interested, feel free to join:

https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAED_CDsydGkf5MU0dg

yodas hut

Besides that, if you have any question that is not absolutely urgent, send me a message on Twitter, I will answer all of them, just have some patience with me.

I have been absolutely overwhelmed by the interest of fellows in the past days, so I would like to thank you very much for all your input, opinions, feedback and interesting questions!

One thing I would like to note. As I said earlier, I do this as a service, it is my passion after all, talking about charts all day long. However its a difference applying your knowledge to your own trades, or sharing it constantly with fellows. The difference is in the amount of time that I need to invest obviously. I absolutely don’t mind, its a great pleasure interacting with you guys.

Just a thing to think about. It is indeed a lot of work, but I am doing it with joy. However if you are able to take any advantage of my trade suggestions, make basically free money, or make a profitable adjustment in your portfolio, please consider sharing a small amount to my BTC tipjar when you close your position. You obviously don’t have to, but if you feel that would be appropiate, it would be much appreciated.

I am thinking about further lessons on how to improve trading, biggest mistakes that can be avoided, further lessons and insights into my own strategy and trading mindset. Many things to come in the future, thanks for being with me.

CryptoYoda

 

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Crypto’s Hut: https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAED_CDsydGkf5MU0dg

yodas hut

 

An Introduction To My System

Dear Fellows,

today I will share an insight into my trading techniques as there has been overwhelming interest during last week. Lets start with the obvious:

My trading strategy is the result of five years trial-and-error. In the course of my short trading career I have made almost every mistake possible, and paid a hefty amount for every lesson learned. And that is absolutely necessary in my opinion in order to learn the game. Yes, you can learn by books, by observation or by following other traders idea’s. But eventually there is only one thing that makes you a better trader: That is to make your own decisions based on the very best knowledge you have at that time, and to learn from whatever the outcome may be. If you feel fear when you put on a trade, good. It shows that you are entering unchartered territory, and those experiences tend to give the greatest rewards, because whatever the outcome, you will certainly learn something new, which means more experience and profits in the future. Certain lessons are harder to learn than others, but its important you make all the mistakes so you know what to avoid in the future. Everyone holding on a losing position knows the feel. And I am pretty sure we all have been there quite a few times. It is not logical information learning that gives you the edge, but the capability to trade while excluding your emotional response mechanism for the decisions you make. And that is only possible if you have experienced the whole bandwith of emotional reactions to a trade. Fear, greed, mental capitulation, you need those valuable lessons to become solid in the future. Have healthy roots, so you can build your system as a logical consequence of the lessons learned.

I always have been focused on long-term, whatever I do. Hence my trading strategy is a reflection of all things important to me trading longer timeframes. The very most important thing to me is to recognize a Major Trend Reversal (= change from longterm downtrend to longterm uptrend) so early, that…

a) … you have enough time to position, so you can wait for quality entry signals

b) … you have a good probability that prices will never retest your entry price ever again

c) … you can ride the whole trend without the hassle of trading in between (which is IMO number 1 cause for longterm traders making less profit as anticipated)

In this list, b) is the crucial one. I want to enter at a point in the chart where prices will likely never return to, so that at no point I will be holding a losing position. I am willing to accept a single retest of my entry price, but usually not twice. You see the margin for this kind of trade is quite small, thats why I spent a great deal of my trading life to find those spots in the chart. I said before, the reason why I posted so many entries during the last two weeks is not that I am a entry-generating machine, but because almost all daily charts are eager for upside reversals. This means, this is a highly significant situation. If you miss the right entry, this means not that you are not going to make a profit, it just means that the risk is higher for a retest below your entry point, and thus a potential trigger for undesired emotional reactions towards your trade (like closing with a 2% loss although the entry was correct, due to emotional instability). We as traders want to minimize the risk of emotions taking over the rational decision making process.

Which brings us to the question, how to spot a Major Trend Reversal early? The way I work with this is Higher Highs, Higher Lows, which is the basic definition of an uptrend, and Lower Highs, Lower Lows, which is the definition of a downtrend. It really is as simple as that, although many other factors play a role too.

Lession 1 - Definition Uptrend Downtrend.png

For the purpose of visualization I put an example in the chart above. The first spike is an uptrend by definition: Higher Highs, Higher Lows. However after the peak market changed into downtrend, thus Lower Highs, Lower Lows. So far so good. What you would be looking for is a reversal of this downtrend pattern to spot the reversal early. In this particular example (which is BTC/USD in Mid 2011), the first interruption of this pattern came around September 2011 with the first Higher High after many Lower Highs, Lower Lows. This High here (after the black vertical line) tells me that the market is in the process of reversing, although still far from actually reversing. Thus I still have a lot of time to position myself accordingly. So what is needed for a Major Trend Reversal to be valid?

a) break of a major trendline

b) a first Higher High after long downtrend,

c) followed by the first Higher Low after long downtrend,

d) preferably high volume on buy bars, weak volume on bear bars

e) the confirmation of trend reversal with another Higher High

because this way, we have 1) Higher High, 2) Higher Low, 3) again Higher High, which is the definition of an uptrend. So after the first Higher High has appeared on the chart, few things become obvious:

  1. Prices will now attempt to build a new Low. Question now is: Will it be Higher or Lower than the previous Low?
  2. Lower Trading Range, around the last Low, will likely be protected by buyers.
  3. Any break above the 1st Higher High (extended green line in the chart) will be seen as the 2nd Higher High, which shows acceleration. At that point we have an official uptrend. Usually we see a spike after the 3rd or 4th Higher High, thus you are in very early and use the spike to push the price far away from your entry.

That means you as a trader have several opportunities how to trade this. You can position early after the first Higher High in the correction that follows. This is what I call an early entry. When we get the 2nd Higher High, it is the confirmation of the trend reversal (as Higher High, Higher Low, Higher High). This is my preferred entry point, although I like to buy in anticipation of that happening. This I call the safe entry. Sure, the early entry is much more profitable, but has more risk associated as we don’t have yet the confirmation that the trend really is reversing – could be a trap at this point. Safe entry gives you smaller rewards, but has also less risk. Traps are less likely to occur at this point. Also, the point when the official trend is reversed by definition (at the 2nd HH) is very likely protected by bulls. The goal of the trade in this example is to recognize the trend reversal early, and ride it all the way up. That means technically until we have no more Higher Highs, Higher Lows, but a change in trend pattern, i.e. a first Lower Low, or Lower High, which indicates the bull trend is getting weaker and potentially about to reverse to downside. As this is only an introduction it is not important you get everything, I will go more into depth in future post.

So lets play this example through. We did buy the green line, because at this point the official definition of an uptrend is correct. Not that prices never retested this range. From the moment you put on your trade, you never had a losing position.

It is important to see the very big picture. Most traders tend to think that the current range is all there is. Its not, there is much more space above to be explored. So lets zoom forward to check how we did in the longrun.

Lession 2 - Why Positioning Early

In this specific example we bought BTC early at $ 7.00 in 2011 at the green line. Waiting two years, making a x38 profit, thats nice. But remember, BTC was so early, barely anyone knew about it. Price discovery therefore was likely slow, and will be much quicker in other charts due to the rising interest in crypto generally.

So lets be clear about this, you have entered a trade at the right time, having not been in risk once, and reap x38 profits by not doing anything at all. But wait, there was more to come wasn’t it?

Lession 3 - Letting Profits Roll

So if you have been patient and sticked to your strategy you would have bought at $ 7.00, and ideally sold at the peak around $1000+. Thats a profit of x155. Getting 155 dollar back for every dollar invested is quite a prime deal. By doing nothing at all really, just finding the right entry and having the patience to follow your plan through. Sure you can trade in the meanwhile to increase the amount of coins you hold (i.e. selling at $250, buying back at below $100 -> 2.5x more coins than before). But this is for experienced traders, the lower the timeframe, the more skills you need to be profitable IMO. That is because: the higher the time frame the more valid and significant the signals will be, while in short time frames good signals often are just traps to push you out of your position.

When you look at the charts provided, it is actually an easy move to make. Most of the times it is way more tricky than it sounds here, but I guess you know that. Three things are of crucial importance if you want to master longterm trading:

  1. Enter a Trend Reversal early, at the right time, with minimum risk
  2. Be patient. Let the pattern unfold. How can anyone know the top when the breakout is just beginning? This is pure speculation. The information you need in order to assess if the top is reached will be provided by the chart itself along the way up, if you are conscious. Stick to your plan.
  3. Try to master selling the top. What makes a top? How can you recognize one, what are first indicators for a potential reversal to the downside / larger correction? That is an entire topic itself so I will not go into depth at this point, but in the future.

To me this strategy is the perfect symbiosis of experience and my personality as a trader. It is gaining maximum value with least amount of work as well. And in crypto, there are many charts, many opportunities to let roll in profits. We are still at the very beginning, so positioning early for this large upside Trend Reversal that is unfolding right now (especially LTC & ETC) might be the most important thing you do for your future financial career. If you have any question about any of this, please feel free to send me a msg on Twitter or Telegramm.

More to follow, stay tuned. In the meanwhile, trade consciously. Much success.

CryptoYoda