Dear Crypto Enthusiasts,
Total Market Capitalization exceeded $ 100B for the first time ever, thus marking a significant milestone in crypto history.
At time of writing, $BTC resides around $ 2850, currently fighting its way through to $ 3000, which is a matter of time given the parabolic weekly rise we have entered.
Obviously the most important question is: What effect does the BTC move have on Alts? So we figure that out in this post.
Polo experiencing a mostly reddish time with an average down of 10% in the day, when looking at the top volume coins. Which is not surprising, given the fact BTC shot up almost $ 300 within a day, triggering a new All Time High, which will again lead new buyers into the market.
So of course Alts dip down when BTC makes a strong move. After all they are still measured against the King of Alts. However watching Alts/BTC market is not the only way of assessing performance, thus I had a close look at the Alts/USDT charts to get additional clues for future directions. Lets compare both /BTC and /USDT charts of some coins to figure out what is going on:
From the looks in USDT, DASH look pretty strong, resisting any larger correction as for now, attempting to build another bull reversal bar on high volume at the time of writing. Any higher high from here would lead to acceleration, new buyers, increased support, potential spikes. Definitely a buy above green.
What a different outlook in DASH/BTC. So from beginning of the year, DASH/USDT trended upwards, while DASH/BTC had a spike and then corrected for a long time. However look at the high volume on some buy bars. People are aware that DASH will have more to come in due time, thus accumulating at lower range. So BTC drags up the value of DASH/USD, but yet supresses its value against /BTC, which will TURN at the moment when DASH/USD will go for new All Time Highs. At that point the Marketcap of DASH will rise quickly, thus dragging up DASH/BTC with it, so both /USDT and /BTC will pump. The trendline retest area of the last chart DASH/BTC is definitely buy zone, so I do not imagine it will stay at this range for long before reversing up. If it does so, be quick to enter and hold longterm.
$ETH/USDT accelerating, merciless forcing out last bears before going parabolic. Another strong bull bar today on high volume, looking strong.
However ETH/BTC has not yet a made move. From the charts above it kinda looks like /BTC is lagging behind about 3 days before the /USDT price move manifests in /BTC. Support is holding, being retested again for 2nd confirmation at the time of writing.
So I suppose that as soon as ETH/USDT will spike, ETH/BTC will turn around soonish (around the support) in order to go for new ATHs. Also here it will lead to parabolic moves in the future when /USDT and /BTC start to pump at the same time.
Wow, so NXT is showing serious signs of strength towards new Highs and triggered new entries today on insane volume. I would like to see the reaction around the last Highs resistance level, but expecting the confirmation by tomorrow, which will lead to insane acceleration and spikes. But wait, lets check NXT/BTC
In short: Nothing yet to be seen. But as we are above EMA 20 and EMA 200, a spike could anytime occur, likely when the daily bar gets triggered by tomorrow in /USDT. Also here, positioning in anticipation is likely very profitable, as there is almost no risk involved.
STR already triggered a buy signal in /USDT on volume, trying to build the bottom here, which will likely lead to new Highs in the next days.
Against BTC, STR shows significantly less strength, but it is obvious we are the very bottom, retesting support again + EMA 20 + EMA 200. The entry is not yet triggered, that would be safe entry, but still early.
There are more charts out there, but the picture is almost the same, so I will just summarize. Rising BTC drags up the USD price of Alts, which then trigger new entries and accelerate. At some point the Marketcap rises so quickly, that Alt/BTC rises as well, even if BTC is still in uptrend mode. It becomes more and more likely that both /USDT and /BTC charts will pump at the same time, PLUS BTC going more and more parabolic. #goldenage
As a consequence of this analyis, I will be adding positions in STR, XMR, ETC, LTC, NXT, REP, ZEC in the next days before the rally takes off. We had a pretty adventurous time in smallcaps these last days, usually after that Big Caps will have its time.
If you are interested, just compare the /USDT to the /BTC Charts on Polo to get further clues. When signals get triggered in USDT, it usually leads to acceleration in /BTC.
May the force be with you,
Hi there folks,
I read an interesting article on Coindesk.com, talking about whether this crypto rally is a bubble or not.For sure an interesting read, I will quote along the article but feel free to have a full read:
“Interestingly enough, this [total] market cap surpassed $90bn earlier this week, representing a year-to-date (YTD) gain of more than 400% from the value of $17.7bn at the start of the year, according to CoinMarketCap data, with a YTD gain for more than 350%
Alternative asset protocols have experienced even stronger gains so far this year, as these currencies draw robust inflows.
While some analysts warned that cryptos may have entered bubble territory, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of leveraged digital currency platform BitMEX, emphasized that these assets could experience further inflows now that wealthy individuals have started looking.
“We are finally at the point where wealthy individuals, those with [more than] $1 million of liquid assets, are considering whether to allocate a very small portion of their net worth into digital assets,” he said. “If this happens on even a small scale, the value of the entire industry will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in short order.”
The broader cryptocurrency space may be well-positioned to draw additional inflows, due to the constant creation of new alternative asset protocols and the ever-changing range of value propositions they provide.
Tim Enneking, chairman of Crypto Asset Management, commented on this development:
“The growth of alts has changed [cryptocurrencies] from a one-trick pony to a range of investments in which one can construct a portfolio.”
And its true. Have you recently considered to take any outside money into the cryptospace to invest in one of those many opportunities popping up every day? Or even already invested another great amount because you feel this thing is close to getting really started? I know many people who just recently bought Bitcoins to invest in the altmarkets. Likelihood is, when you do it, others do it too. imagine just a little fraction of the global population has or is in the process of purchasing Bitcoins, not as for the reason to speculate with BTC, but to forward it to an alt exchange to buy some ETC, XRP, DGB, and what not.
What a massive inflow of capital into small but promising projects. There is not much innovation anymore in Bitcoin and people figure that. The real shiny ones are Altcoins who are capable of changing the face of money economy and IT. And in all honestly, out there are more profitable picks than you can possibly take. Research is key here, distinguish the dirt from quality, accumulate quality coins.
I know the voices on twitter and news are talking about the end of the rally. I believe this rally has not taken off yet and will do so with the momentum currently available. IMHO the #goldenage is unstoppable at this point. The only reason BTC can hold current level despite blocksize debate going on for years now is that fresh entrants come into the game and bring fresh capital to be distributed in many different alts.
Marketcaps of Altcoins will thus further accelerate until it spikes and becomes a runaway bull trend. This pattern will unfold this year and will leverage all coins to a way higher price plateau, that high that it is unlikely we will ever see a retest at this range ever again. That means if you are not positioned when this rapid moves happen, you missed the rally of a lifetime. Talking to shortterm traders here, you will be burned along the way as fuel for the accelerating price increase. We need to push out last weak hands before being able to spike seriously. Sellers and bears must be completely wiped out in order for the goldenage spike to begin.
Shorters, top sellers, margin traders, most of the get wiped out during that process and will take the massive loss and buy back with the remaining capital way higher during the fomo spike. and that then is REAL fomo, not the kindergarten rallies we see here at the bottom still. From purely technical aspects, when bears get extinct, we see insane prices increases going on for days, even weeks in a row before retesting.
Lets examine that on the chart of ETC which is showing exactly what is going on in the correction and the entire market. We have a classic double checkmate situation here. We got both a triggered bear reversal and bull reversal bar. That means, both bulls and bears are trapped between red and green line. stop levels for their positions is at dark red, either side.
What else is that when not a disagreement of traders debating whether or not the current altcoin rally is true? There are many different opinions in the market, but the truth is, nobody knows how this story ends. Everybody trying to assess using their very best knowledge which is the accumulation of experiences of a lifetime.
So both the bull and bear camps have positioned themselves for the showdown. both signals are valid, the bear reversal is strong and on high volume, however little tail on bottom, indicating bulls already bought into the close of the bar. The bear reversal got triggered on the very next bar, which means sellers are officially in the market now, and try to add on positions when the price is rising a bit. Those bears speculating on a “bubble” think prices might return to lower prices, so they can accumulate more there. However the next bar dumped deep, right into previous High support, but immediately reversed to the upside and closed as a strong bull reversal. This entry bar got triggered at the very next bar, which means buyers have found the way into the market again.
So checkmate, the next move decides the fortune of that rally. Who’s camp get stopped out first while have a bad bad time. Both dark red lines are in the market, clearly visible for everyone, which means that there will be shorters below, and buyers above.
So wait, we have to equal signals, how do we distinguish the good from the bad move?
As we have two signals we will look more into price action, which is the analysis of bar to bar, one after another, to get a feeling for the overall market. Combine that with a sense of empathy and technical analysis and you have an impressive skillset in your hands. Feeling is a substantial part of my analysis. I am one of the rare people in this world who have the joy to spend such insane amount of hours in this space, i follow all charts without any breaks for three years. It is a story that you follow, a little word every day until you can read a whole chapter, the whole book.
Here again the picture so we dont have to scroll up.
Lets compare the two signals. Because we want to analyze a potential edge here which gives us an indication of what is more likely to happen. The bear reversal was strong, on high volume, but had a little tail on bottom. The bull reversal was also a strong breakout, but the body is slightly bigger than that of the bear bar, also it has no tail on top at all. So to me, the bull signal is slightly stronger. But there are more factors:
First off all the bull momentum is way stronger as we had several breakouts during last days, first small ones, then getting bigger any time. It is hard to stop a bull trend when it has finally manifested in the market for everybody to see. Likely scenario, which would be my best guess in that situation, is that bulls will be slowly taking over control, especially with rising BTC again, which drags the USD value of alts with it. That means prices will slowly close higher until many of the positioned bears will give up on their positions which leads to a chain reaction and eventually strong up spike.
Also it can be possible we see another retest of support, trying to push out more weak hand bulls who are tempted to cut losses. For both camps, both bull and bear, its a test of belief. Are they panic-closing their positions when they are in red (shorters) or are they rather relaxed because they know the upside momentum is way stronger and buy support is thick below, as we have established a healthy uptrend on daily (holders)?
Well how the situation continues remains to be seen, exciting times for sure. Upside potential for all alts (this ETC chart is a reference to most of the altcoins, as the market feeling is the same) is huge. When we reach either side of the dark red stop loss levels, the things become interesting. For now from my side, thumbs up, market is in good condition, mostly have retested previous Highs in daily. Trend is intact, I expect acceleration of trend in the next days and weeks as soon as Alts have recovered from the “surprising” BTC drop.
Different chart, same situation. This is Total Market Cap. Sellers and Buyers in squeeze zone, the next High decides the fate of the next days and weeks. Still time to do a lot of research about promising coins! Take some hours of time and really scan every market you can find, polo, bittrex, bitcoinwisdom, whatever. Look for undervalued coins with promising charts, collect these in a list. Then research every coin you have found and disregard if trash, take to the next round for quality picks. Sort out so you have some solid undervalued early coins to invest in, then accumulate. Time is still early, so it might be that these days and weeks are the very most important in our financial future. Refine your portfolio everyday, until the point when you are just happy with how it is, which never happens. Its a constant refinement, no static thing. But we will figure that out along the way, we have a lot of time left to speak about these things in the future.
For now keep on doing what you do, so will I. This week will be pretty exciting as some move has to occur. So all the best, speak to ya again soon,
Dear loyal readers,
every day its a pleasure to wake up and dive into crypto, no surprise with such a great community. Today I want to elaborate on the end of BTC dominance due to various reasons. For the analysis I used all charts on blockchain.info, which is a great reference to get an overview over the overall state of the market. So lets go:
Lets start with the obvious: Blocks are full to an extend that transactions no longer will be processed except if you include a high fee. Waited for a transaction for five days, included $70 fees, because I needed it to be quick. The situation is unbearable, and prices cant maintain the current altitude without a solution. Have a look at this chart:
It becomes evident when seeing it like that, Blocks are more than full, the natural limit of the blockchain is reached. There is two options how to go on:
1) Miners agree on a solution, blocksize increase ASAP
2) BTC price will collapse
The decisive point is now until July 2017. If not solution is to be found, BTC price of > $1700 is not justified, given altcoins exist providing more value in this regard. IMO current price of BTC is unsustainable given the current circumstancs. But lets go over more charts:
Unique addresses accelerating, will spike soonish if trend continues (crypto trend unstoppable at this stage IMO). That means we have spiking interest in crypto, for which BTC is the foundation. Rising Interest vs Blocksize Limit Situation here.
However when it come to solutions, we are not even close to anything. The chart above is just the example of Segwit support, which has a hard time keeping a level of moren than 30% support. Problems are severe right now, but solution is not in sight.
Mining however are doing great! Sure they do, after all who profits from rising fees in transactions… So for miners the current situation is very profitable. Rising Interest, but limit slots per block for transactions, thus the TX with the highest fee will be accepted only. Such profits. But is the fee rising actually?
Oh, but yes! BTC fee are spiking, on the way to a new All Time High. which in this case is not a buy, but a strong sell. Network remains with many limitations, getting slower every day, but costs for TX increase at the same time. However this chart is nothing compared to the next, as BTC prices may be confusing. This will be pretty clear:
Oops. fees in USD way above ATH, accelerating, spiking, going parabolic. Looking at these charts, everybody is able to tell that BTC has a big big problem coming up soon.
Mempool increasing every day, having more unconfirmed transactions in the pool than any time before. That means transactions are stacking up in the blockchain, but get not processed as highest fee TX will be included in blocks. Thus transactions with small fee may take weeks to arrive at the destination. But lets have a look at the total market cap:
Total market cap spiking, showing no signs of reversal. High volume on this upmove, thus likely more to follow. Money is flowing into crypto at an unseen rate, and is likely to increase in the next weeks, months and years. Unstoppable at this point.
BTC percentage in the overall market cap is decreasing rapidly, money flowing into alts at insane rate. If there is no quick solution, other coins will take over BTC’s leading position. All alts will have a golden time. Thus this still is the beginning in terms of #GoldenAge, as the BTC crash is needed for Alts to completely leave current range. Its like 2011 all over again.
Total Market Cap excluding BTC is spiking, further stating the obvious: The Altmarket is unstoppable at this time, massive money flowing in. Every day now, BTC loses its dominance, while Alts take more control. This will accelerate without a quick solution.
Lets have a closer look at the most dominant Altcoins, namely ETH, XRP, LTC, DASH, as the MKTCAP charts have been provided by coinmarketcap.com. thanks for that.
Well, not much to be said about XRP. Everyone who read my articles and followed me closely the last five weeks is balls deep in XRP for a move beyond $1. Massive money is flowing into XRP, and will likely accelerate. As I tweeted earlier; If Banks START using Ripple this year, this is the beginning, not the end of the rally. hodl for life here, your future self will thank you.
After XRP and STR had some massive rally and shows signs of corretions, ETH is probably very willing and able to do the same. Expecting a retest of previous MKTCAP Highs, where it will likely reverse and spike beyond ATH. From the looks of the chart, there might be some more days of consolidation, but buyers should increasingly find their way into ETH soonish, which will lead to profit taking in XRP and flows into ETH/ETC and coins based on Ethereum code.
Comparing both we clearly see XRP taking over control, however ETH will not give its rank up without a proper fight. I except a honest race between those two, XRP now taking the lead. When it will correct, ETH will spike to keep up. So positioning early in ETH pairs is a wise move.
LTC is still early in this regard. Had a breakout of the channel on high volume, but currently retesting, also waiting for XRP finishing its move. Entries are triggered, expecting Higher Highs, Higher Lows in the future as well as acceleration. Retest of previous support is expected, thus some more days patience until the small brother will lift off, with a erious attempt to take over control the majority of BTCs marketcap. After all, Segwit got activated, LN. In short. LTC is BTC in 2011. Please have a look at the All Time Chart BTC again to get a picture where we currently are in the LTC narrative.
DASH also very early. had a spike above ATH, now correcting and retesting previous buy support levels. Does not matter by the way if the chart I analyse is MarketCap or Price/BTC. Eventually all charts work the same way, even in Nature. Laws of chart are fundamentally included in this life experience. Chart anything you like, try to apply TA, watch magic unfold. How does it work? I dont know, but it works. Experiment with it!
So lets come to a conclusion:
Transaction Value is spiking, Unique addresses spiking, MKTCAP spiking. At the same time, number of Unconfirmed Transactions spiking, Cost per Transaction spiking, but no solution in sight. The era of BTC is coming to an end. Position into alts before its too late. Once the crash comes it will be devastating, and Alts will be the winner. Buy all promising projects early in anticipation, also SmallCaps which will may generate 1000x+ ROI if bought very low, hold very long. Make the best out of this opportunity, always be one step ahead. Hold your bags, survive all the dips, even if its going down 40 or 50% on a day. It will come back. Please dont be tempted to sell the tops and rebuy lower, only if you REALLY know what you do. If you trade less than a year i crypto, just hold your stuff.
Normally last Highs will be retested after a pump, thats TA law. Thus traders try to sell the top when its far away from breakout point, and try to rebuy lower at last High. Until that very day, when the buy support is so strong that the last High will not even remotely be tested, and leaves a big gap in the chart, which is a signs of bullish strength. All will need to buy back in panic way higher than they originally sold. This will lead to two things:
1) a MASSIVE fomo leg up, leaving behind all previous Highs for never to return.
2) Traders who got trapped in this trade and rebought higher will likely hold from now on. Which means that they will no longer sell the tops, which is decreases resistance and will lead to Higher Prices in the future, more quickly, more easily, more accelerating.
If you still sell the tops and it works, fine. Please dont be left behind. If you start holding now, expontential profits will await you this year. If you continue, I give you a 90% chance you will be left behind at some stage of the rally, missing 90% of the entire move.
Gentlemen, please place your bets.
Good luck riding this wave, for the #GoldenAge is near, and will finally kickoff when BTC starts to collapse. Be prepared in advance. Support your fellow traders to dont panic sell the dip, stay strong, give each other support and help, stay disciplined. And I do not worry about your financial future in 2-3 years from now, for life.
All the best, kindest greetings to people all over the world who were at the right time, at the right place, doing the right thing. Its wonderful to have you all here and I love every day spending with you folks, witnessing history of the biggest bubble of mankind.
Much success, and stay tuned,
over the weekend we needed to close the subscriptions due to insane traffic and interest. After some preparations and improvement, I am happy to announce round #2 of subscriptions for Padawan and Jedi levels will be opened in the late evening hours Europe Time. All information will be provided on Twitter, stay tuned!
Jedi will have 100 seats left for now. group size must be relatively small in order to work diligently, and to increase quality of service. Padawans no restriction yet.
Hope to see you on board soon!
All the best,